The expanded 48-team format for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with 12 groups of four and advancement for the top two sides plus the eight best third-place teams, has shaped trader consensus around group-stage outcomes. With the tournament opening June 11 across host nations, recent final draw results and completed qualifiers have clarified matchups, while injury reports on players such as Kaoru Mitoma and fitness updates for figures like Lamine Yamal and William Saliba influence assessments of squad depth. Recent form, historical head-to-head records, home-soil advantages for co-hosts, and schedule congestion in the opening matchdays remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities for teams navigating tight group contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWorld Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
$254,230 Vol.
Jun 28, 2026
Spain
98%
England
97%
France
97%
Brazil
97%
Portugal
96%
Germany
96%
Belgium
95%
Argentina
95%
Switzerland
93%
Mexico
91%
Netherlands
91%
Colombia
88%
Ecuador
87%
Morocco
86%
Uruguay
86%
Canada
85%
USA
84%
Norway
84%
Croatia
80%
Turkiye
79%
Ivory Coast
79%
Japan
78%
Austria
77%
Egypt
73%
Scotland
72%
Senegal
71%
Czechia
70%
South Korea
69%
Algeria
69%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
66%
Paraguay
65%
Sweden
64%
Iran
62%
Ghana
53%
Australia
50%
DR Congo
44%
Tunisia
39%
South Africa
37%
Saudi Arabia
36%
New Zealand
34%
Uzbekistan
34%
Cape Verde
30%
Panama
29%
Qatar
22%
Jordan
21%
Iraq
14%
Haiti
12%
Curacao
11%
$254,230 Vol.
Spain
$19,579 Vol.
98%
England
$8,338 Vol.
97%
France
$9,756 Vol.
97%
Brazil
$9,599 Vol.
97%
Portugal
$9,989 Vol.
96%
Germany
$8,490 Vol.
96%
Belgium
$5,779 Vol.
95%
Argentina
$5,047 Vol.
95%
Switzerland
$5,879 Vol.
93%
Mexico
$5,222 Vol.
91%
Netherlands
$5,177 Vol.
91%
Colombia
$6,982 Vol.
88%
Ecuador
$1,457 Vol.
87%
Morocco
$2,518 Vol.
86%
Uruguay
$742 Vol.
86%
Canada
$1,547 Vol.
85%
USA
$17,494 Vol.
84%
Norway
$5,160 Vol.
84%
Croatia
$2,059 Vol.
80%
Turkiye
$9,212 Vol.
79%
Ivory Coast
$2,155 Vol.
79%
Japan
$2,556 Vol.
78%
Austria
$13,493 Vol.
77%
Egypt
$886 Vol.
73%
Scotland
$8,364 Vol.
72%
Senegal
$3,457 Vol.
71%
Czechia
$1,139 Vol.
70%
South Korea
$841 Vol.
69%
Algeria
$1,544 Vol.
69%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
$2,933 Vol.
66%
Paraguay
$470 Vol.
65%
Sweden
$3,121 Vol.
64%
Iran
$3,080 Vol.
62%
Ghana
$3,028 Vol.
53%
Australia
$4,758 Vol.
50%
DR Congo
$5,768 Vol.
44%
Tunisia
$2,850 Vol.
39%
South Africa
$3,448 Vol.
37%
Saudi Arabia
$11,535 Vol.
36%
New Zealand
$9,120 Vol.
34%
Uzbekistan
$1,847 Vol.
34%
Cape Verde
$3,518 Vol.
30%
Panama
$3,915 Vol.
29%
Qatar
$3,291 Vol.
22%
Jordan
$4,018 Vol.
21%
Iraq
$3,632 Vol.
14%
Haiti
$7,609 Vol.
12%
Curacao
$2,714 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The expanded 48-team format for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with 12 groups of four and advancement for the top two sides plus the eight best third-place teams, has shaped trader consensus around group-stage outcomes. With the tournament opening June 11 across host nations, recent final draw results and completed qualifiers have clarified matchups, while injury reports on players such as Kaoru Mitoma and fitness updates for figures like Lamine Yamal and William Saliba influence assessments of squad depth. Recent form, historical head-to-head records, home-soil advantages for co-hosts, and schedule congestion in the opening matchdays remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities for teams navigating tight group contests.
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volume
$254,230End Date
Jun 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The expanded 48-team format for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with 12 groups of four and advancement for the top two sides plus the eight best third-place teams, has shaped trader consensus around group-stage outcomes. With the tournament opening June 11 across host nations, recent final draw results and completed qualifiers have clarified matchups, while injury reports on players such as Kaoru Mitoma and fitness updates for figures like Lamine Yamal and William Saliba influence assessments of squad depth. Recent form, historical head-to-head records, home-soil advantages for co-hosts, and schedule congestion in the opening matchdays remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities for teams navigating tight group contests.
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$254,230End Date
Jun 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The expanded 48-team format for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with 12 groups of four and advancement for the top two sides plus the eight best third-place teams, has shaped trader consensus around group-stage outcomes. With the tournament opening June 11 across host nations, recent final draw results and completed qualifiers have clarified matchups, while injury reports on players such as Kaoru Mitoma and fitness updates for figures like Lamine Yamal and William Saliba influence assessments of squad depth. Recent form, historical head-to-head records, home-soil advantages for co-hosts, and schedule congestion in the opening matchdays remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities for teams navigating tight group contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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