Russian forces have conducted limited cross-border operations and incremental probes in northern Sumy Oblast near Pokrovka throughout 2025 and into 2026, with sporadic claims of advances offset by Ukrainian counteractions and drone interdiction that have constrained Russian accumulation and rotations. The settlement remains a contested border point rather than a primary axis of advance, as Moscow prioritizes attritional gains in Donetsk while seeking buffer zones along the northeastern frontier. Ukrainian forces have retained control of Pokrovka amid ongoing clashes, reflecting the broader pattern of slow Russian progress in secondary sectors despite sustained pressure. Trader consensus on near-term capture by late July 2026 assigns low probability, consistent with historical rates of territorial change in the region and the absence of major recent escalations that would shift momentum. Scheduled developments include continued Russian attempts to expand footholds ahead of any potential diplomatic pauses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$74,003 Vol.
31 jul 2026
July 31
22%
$74,003 Vol.
July 31
$2,042 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited cross-border operations and incremental probes in northern Sumy Oblast near Pokrovka throughout 2025 and into 2026, with sporadic claims of advances offset by Ukrainian counteractions and drone interdiction that have constrained Russian accumulation and rotations. The settlement remains a contested border point rather than a primary axis of advance, as Moscow prioritizes attritional gains in Donetsk while seeking buffer zones along the northeastern frontier. Ukrainian forces have retained control of Pokrovka amid ongoing clashes, reflecting the broader pattern of slow Russian progress in secondary sectors despite sustained pressure. Trader consensus on near-term capture by late July 2026 assigns low probability, consistent with historical rates of territorial change in the region and the absence of major recent escalations that would shift momentum. Scheduled developments include continued Russian attempts to expand footholds ahead of any potential diplomatic pauses.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: May 27, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Volumen
$74,003Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited cross-border operations and incremental probes in northern Sumy Oblast near Pokrovka throughout 2025 and into 2026, with sporadic claims of advances offset by Ukrainian counteractions and drone interdiction that have constrained Russian accumulation and rotations. The settlement remains a contested border point rather than a primary axis of advance, as Moscow prioritizes attritional gains in Donetsk while seeking buffer zones along the northeastern frontier. Ukrainian forces have retained control of Pokrovka amid ongoing clashes, reflecting the broader pattern of slow Russian progress in secondary sectors despite sustained pressure. Trader consensus on near-term capture by late July 2026 assigns low probability, consistent with historical rates of territorial change in the region and the absence of major recent escalations that would shift momentum. Scheduled developments include continued Russian attempts to expand footholds ahead of any potential diplomatic pauses.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK1.png
Intersection Location in Pokrovka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK2.png
Pokrovka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/PK3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5bGDdDbzTjnHjY418
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$74,003Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted limited cross-border operations and incremental probes in northern Sumy Oblast near Pokrovka throughout 2025 and into 2026, with sporadic claims of advances offset by Ukrainian counteractions and drone interdiction that have constrained Russian accumulation and rotations. The settlement remains a contested border point rather than a primary axis of advance, as Moscow prioritizes attritional gains in Donetsk while seeking buffer zones along the northeastern frontier. Ukrainian forces have retained control of Pokrovka amid ongoing clashes, reflecting the broader pattern of slow Russian progress in secondary sectors despite sustained pressure. Trader consensus on near-term capture by late July 2026 assigns low probability, consistent with historical rates of territorial change in the region and the absence of major recent escalations that would shift momentum. Scheduled developments include continued Russian attempts to expand footholds ahead of any potential diplomatic pauses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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