Google's Gemini large language models have driven the 65% implied probability through superior recent performance on math benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and IMO-level problems, outpacing rivals in multi-step reasoning and competition mathematics as of early June 2026. Anthropic's Claude series holds a solid 29% share due to strong general reasoning capabilities that translate well to quantitative tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at 8% despite earlier leads in some evaluations. Trader consensus reflects verified capability demonstrations rather than speculation, with the tight end-of-June resolution window amplifying focus on the latest model iterations and benchmark updates across the competitive AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 65%
Anthropic 29%
OpenAI 8%
Z.ai 1.3%
$51,575 Vol.
$51,575 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
65%
Anthropic
29%
OpenAI
8%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
xAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 65%
Anthropic 29%
OpenAI 8%
Z.ai 1.3%
$51,575 Vol.
$51,575 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$7,192 Vol.
65%
Anthropic
$6,622 Vol.
29%
OpenAI
$4,412 Vol.
8%
Z.ai
$3,349 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$2,391 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$3,442 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$3,134 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$2,916 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$2,393 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,296 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$2,595 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$2,154 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,980 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$2,286 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,411 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini large language models have driven the 65% implied probability through superior recent performance on math benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and IMO-level problems, outpacing rivals in multi-step reasoning and competition mathematics as of early June 2026. Anthropic's Claude series holds a solid 29% share due to strong general reasoning capabilities that translate well to quantitative tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at 8% despite earlier leads in some evaluations. Trader consensus reflects verified capability demonstrations rather than speculation, with the tight end-of-June resolution window amplifying focus on the latest model iterations and benchmark updates across the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$51,575End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini large language models have driven the 65% implied probability through superior recent performance on math benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and IMO-level problems, outpacing rivals in multi-step reasoning and competition mathematics as of early June 2026. Anthropic's Claude series holds a solid 29% share due to strong general reasoning capabilities that translate well to quantitative tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at 8% despite earlier leads in some evaluations. Trader consensus reflects verified capability demonstrations rather than speculation, with the tight end-of-June resolution window amplifying focus on the latest model iterations and benchmark updates across the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$51,575End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini large language models have driven the 65% implied probability through superior recent performance on math benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and IMO-level problems, outpacing rivals in multi-step reasoning and competition mathematics as of early June 2026. Anthropic's Claude series holds a solid 29% share due to strong general reasoning capabilities that translate well to quantitative tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at 8% despite earlier leads in some evaluations. Trader consensus reflects verified capability demonstrations rather than speculation, with the tight end-of-June resolution window amplifying focus on the latest model iterations and benchmark updates across the competitive AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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