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icon for Which artists will have #1 hits in May?

Which artists will have #1 hits in May?

icon for Which artists will have #1 hits in May?

Which artists will have #1 hits in May?

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$2,044 Vol.

Polymarket

Drake

$1,592 Vol.

78%

Don Toliver

$0 Vol.

50%

Bad Bunny

$1 Vol.

50%

Alex Warren

$0 Vol.

50%

Olivia Rodrigo

$0 Vol.

50%

Bruno Mars

$0 Vol.

50%

Olivia Dean

$0 Vol.

49%

Taylor Swift

$125 Vol.

7%

Noah Kahan

$274 Vol.

2%

Kanye West

$52 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Drake at around 90% implied probability for a #1 Billboard Hot 100 hit in May, propelled by his ninth studio album Iceman's confirmed May 15 release—his first solo project since 2023—poised for massive streaming and sales debut amid high anticipation from promotional teasers. Olivia Rodrigo just seized the top spot with "Drop Dead" debuting at No. 1 on the May 2 chart, dethroning Ella Langley's dominant "Choosin' Texas" after its record seven-week run, while early predictions from chart trackers like Talk of the Charts signal tight races through May 9. Key catalysts ahead include weekly chart freezes Tuesdays and Drake's rollout impact on the May 23 dated chart, with historical precedents showing big drops often yielding instant No. 1s.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.
Volume
$2,044
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Drake at around 90% implied probability for a #1 Billboard Hot 100 hit in May, propelled by his ninth studio album Iceman's confirmed May 15 release—his first solo project since 2023—poised for massive streaming and sales debut amid high anticipation from promotional teasers. Olivia Rodrigo just seized the top spot with "Drop Dead" debuting at No. 1 on the May 2 chart, dethroning Ella Langley's dominant "Choosin' Texas" after its record seven-week run, while early predictions from chart trackers like Talk of the Charts signal tight races through May 9. Key catalysts ahead include weekly chart freezes Tuesdays and Drake's rollout impact on the May 23 dated chart, with historical precedents showing big drops often yielding instant No. 1s.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.
Volume
$2,044
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which artists will have #1 hits in May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Drake" at 79%, followed by "Don Toliver" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which artists will have #1 hits in May?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which artists will have #1 hits in May?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which artists will have #1 hits in May?" is "Drake" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Don Toliver" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which artists will have #1 hits in May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.