Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Noah Kahan's The Great Divide surpassing 250,000 first-week units at 99% implied probability, driven by midweek tracking from HITS Daily Double projecting a dominant 335,000 total album-equivalent units—including 152,000 pure sales—for the April 24-30 tracking period. This surge builds on the album's explosive 43.44 million global Spotify streams on day one, with all 17 tracks charting, fueled by Kahan's post-Stick Season momentum, critical acclaim, and hit title track. No close competition challenges the #1 Billboard 200 lock, but an upset below 250k would require unprecedented late-week sales evaporation or tracking revisions, scenarios traders dismiss given steady upward revisions from initial 275k estimates. Final numbers drop next week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNoah Kahan 'The Great Divide' First Week Album Sales?
Noah Kahan 'The Great Divide' First Week Album Sales?
250k+ 99.0%
<125k <1%
125k-150k <1%
200k-225k <1%
$10,699 Vol.
$10,699 Vol.
May 1, 2026
<125k
1%
125k-150k
1%
150k-175k
<1%
175k-200k
<1%
200k-225k
<1%
225k-250k
<1%
250k+
99%
250k+ 99.0%
<125k <1%
125k-150k <1%
200k-225k <1%
$10,699 Vol.
$10,699 Vol.
May 1, 2026
<125k
$977 Vol.
1%
125k-150k
$1,073 Vol.
1%
150k-175k
$852 Vol.
<1%
175k-200k
$683 Vol.
<1%
200k-225k
$789 Vol.
<1%
225k-250k
$711 Vol.
<1%
250k+
$5,614 Vol.
99%
Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double.
If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Noah Kahan's The Great Divide surpassing 250,000 first-week units at 99% implied probability, driven by midweek tracking from HITS Daily Double projecting a dominant 335,000 total album-equivalent units—including 152,000 pure sales—for the April 24-30 tracking period. This surge builds on the album's explosive 43.44 million global Spotify streams on day one, with all 17 tracks charting, fueled by Kahan's post-Stick Season momentum, critical acclaim, and hit title track. No close competition challenges the #1 Billboard 200 lock, but an upset below 250k would require unprecedented late-week sales evaporation or tracking revisions, scenarios traders dismiss given steady upward revisions from initial 275k estimates. Final numbers drop next week.
Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double.
If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double.
If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$10,699End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double.
If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Noah Kahan's The Great Divide surpassing 250,000 first-week units at 99% implied probability, driven by midweek tracking from HITS Daily Double projecting a dominant 335,000 total album-equivalent units—including 152,000 pure sales—for the April 24-30 tracking period. This surge builds on the album's explosive 43.44 million global Spotify streams on day one, with all 17 tracks charting, fueled by Kahan's post-Stick Season momentum, critical acclaim, and hit title track. No close competition challenges the #1 Billboard 200 lock, but an upset below 250k would require unprecedented late-week sales evaporation or tracking revisions, scenarios traders dismiss given steady upward revisions from initial 275k estimates. Final numbers drop next week.
Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double.
If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double.
If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$10,699End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Noah Kahan's The Great Divide surpassing 250,000 first-week units at 99% implied probability, driven by midweek tracking from HITS Daily Double projecting a dominant 335,000 total album-equivalent units—including 152,000 pure sales—for the April 24-30 tracking period. This surge builds on the album's explosive 43.44 million global Spotify streams on day one, with all 17 tracks charting, fueled by Kahan's post-Stick Season momentum, critical acclaim, and hit title track. No close competition challenges the #1 Billboard 200 lock, but an upset below 250k would require unprecedented late-week sales evaporation or tracking revisions, scenarios traders dismiss given steady upward revisions from initial 275k estimates. Final numbers drop next week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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