Skip to main content
icon for Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Elections·Referendum

Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory

icon for Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Elections·Referendum

Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory

Pass 3-6% 94.8%

Pass 6-9% 1.9%

Pass <3% <1%

Polymarket

$551,677 Vol.

Pass 3-6% 94.8%

Pass 6-9% 1.9%

Pass <3% <1%

Polymarket

$551,677 Vol.

Pass 6-9%

$74,569 Vol.

2%

Pass 3-6%

$172,884 Vol.

95%

Pass <3%

$177,867 Vol.

1%

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Virginia voters approved the constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to adopt a new congressional map in the April 21, 2026, special election, with unofficial results showing 51.7% Yes (about 1.6 million votes) to 48.3% No, a 3.4 percentage point margin that precisely matches trader consensus pricing "Pass 3-6%" at over 94%. Low turnout of 48.6% among registered voters amplified the close partisan divide, favoring the Democratic-majority legislature's proposal amid prior court battles affirming the ballot placement. A Tazewell County judge's April 22 injunction blocking certification persists after the Virginia Supreme Court denied a stay on April 28, though traders dismiss major shifts from potential recounts or legal invalidation given the clear tally. Full merits hearing could still alter implementation.

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.

If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.

If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.

If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.

If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$551,677
End Date
Apr 21, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Virginia voters approved the constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to adopt a new congressional map in the April 21, 2026, special election, with unofficial results showing 51.7% Yes (about 1.6 million votes) to 48.3% No, a 3.4 percentage point margin that precisely matches trader consensus pricing "Pass 3-6%" at over 94%. Low turnout of 48.6% among registered voters amplified the close partisan divide, favoring the Democratic-majority legislature's proposal amid prior court battles affirming the ballot placement. A Tazewell County judge's April 22 injunction blocking certification persists after the Virginia Supreme Court denied a stay on April 28, though traders dismiss major shifts from potential recounts or legal invalidation given the clear tally. Full merits hearing could still alter implementation.

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.

If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.

If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.

If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.

If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$551,677
End Date
Apr 21, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).

Related

icon for Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?

Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?

56%
icon for New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?

New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?

67%
icon for Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?

93%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pass 3-6%" at 95%, followed by "Pass 6-9%" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory" has generated $551.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory" is "Pass 3-6%" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pass 6-9%" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.