Strong semiconductor export momentum from Q1 2026's upwardly revised 3.8% YoY GDP growth underpins the near-even trader sentiment between the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% ranges for Q2. May exports surged 53% year-over-year on IT demand, yet sequential moderation after the Q1 rebound and May CPI rising to 3.1% create offsetting pressures on domestic demand. Consensus full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.6% from the OECD and Bank of Korea anchor expectations, while June data and the July advance GDP release remain key swing factors amid stable unemployment near 2.8%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
3.0–3.4% 44%
2.5–2.9% 38.4%
4.5%+ 22.1%
2.0–2.4% 12%
<1.5%
17%
1.5–1.9%
12%
2.0–2.4%
12%
2.5–2.9%
38%
3.0–3.4%
41%
3.5–3.9%
31%
4.0–4.4%
9%
4.5%+
22%
3.0–3.4% 44%
2.5–2.9% 38.4%
4.5%+ 22.1%
2.0–2.4% 12%
<1.5%
17%
1.5–1.9%
12%
2.0–2.4%
12%
2.5–2.9%
38%
3.0–3.4%
41%
3.5–3.9%
31%
4.0–4.4%
9%
4.5%+
22%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong semiconductor export momentum from Q1 2026's upwardly revised 3.8% YoY GDP growth underpins the near-even trader sentiment between the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% ranges for Q2. May exports surged 53% year-over-year on IT demand, yet sequential moderation after the Q1 rebound and May CPI rising to 3.1% create offsetting pressures on domestic demand. Consensus full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.6% from the OECD and Bank of Korea anchor expectations, while June data and the July advance GDP release remain key swing factors amid stable unemployment near 2.8%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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