Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP growth market reflects elevated uncertainty early in the quarter, with leading outcome probabilities clustered tightly between 34.5% and 46.5% across ranges from deep contraction to above 4%. The primary driver is the strong Q1 2026 print of 2.1% annualized growth—driven by resilient private consumption, export gains, and public investment—juxtaposed against emerging headwinds from Middle East tensions that have lifted crude prices, threatening to reignite inflation and curb household spending. Bank of Japan and private forecasts for modest Q2 expansion or mild contraction, alongside yen volatility and labor-market tightness, have kept trader consensus dispersed rather than concentrated on any single band. Key upcoming catalysts include June industrial production and retail sales data, which could shift implied probabilities ahead of the August release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated-1.6%– -0.8% 94%
2.4%–3.2% 94%
-2.4%– -1.6% 92%
-0.8%–0.0% 92%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
34%
-2.4%– -1.6%
92%
-1.6%– -0.8%
94%
-0.8%–0.0%
92%
0.0%–0.8%
92%
0.8%–1.6%
35%
1.6%–2.4%
32%
2.4%–3.2%
94%
3.2%–4.0%
44%
4.0%+
-
-1.6%– -0.8% 94%
2.4%–3.2% 94%
-2.4%– -1.6% 92%
-0.8%–0.0% 92%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
$10 Vol.
34%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$0 Vol.
92%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$0 Vol.
94%
-0.8%–0.0%
$0 Vol.
92%
0.0%–0.8%
$0 Vol.
92%
0.8%–1.6%
$10 Vol.
35%
1.6%–2.4%
$10 Vol.
32%
2.4%–3.2%
$0 Vol.
94%
3.2%–4.0%
$49 Vol.
44%
4.0%+
$5 Vol.
-
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP growth market reflects elevated uncertainty early in the quarter, with leading outcome probabilities clustered tightly between 34.5% and 46.5% across ranges from deep contraction to above 4%. The primary driver is the strong Q1 2026 print of 2.1% annualized growth—driven by resilient private consumption, export gains, and public investment—juxtaposed against emerging headwinds from Middle East tensions that have lifted crude prices, threatening to reignite inflation and curb household spending. Bank of Japan and private forecasts for modest Q2 expansion or mild contraction, alongside yen volatility and labor-market tightness, have kept trader consensus dispersed rather than concentrated on any single band. Key upcoming catalysts include June industrial production and retail sales data, which could shift implied probabilities ahead of the August release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$84End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q2 2026 GDP growth market reflects elevated uncertainty early in the quarter, with leading outcome probabilities clustered tightly between 34.5% and 46.5% across ranges from deep contraction to above 4%. The primary driver is the strong Q1 2026 print of 2.1% annualized growth—driven by resilient private consumption, export gains, and public investment—juxtaposed against emerging headwinds from Middle East tensions that have lifted crude prices, threatening to reignite inflation and curb household spending. Bank of Japan and private forecasts for modest Q2 expansion or mild contraction, alongside yen volatility and labor-market tightness, have kept trader consensus dispersed rather than concentrated on any single band. Key upcoming catalysts include June industrial production and retail sales data, which could shift implied probabilities ahead of the August release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$84End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q2 2026 GDP growth market reflects elevated uncertainty early in the quarter, with leading outcome probabilities clustered tightly between 34.5% and 46.5% across ranges from deep contraction to above 4%. The primary driver is the strong Q1 2026 print of 2.1% annualized growth—driven by resilient private consumption, export gains, and public investment—juxtaposed against emerging headwinds from Middle East tensions that have lifted crude prices, threatening to reignite inflation and curb household spending. Bank of Japan and private forecasts for modest Q2 expansion or mild contraction, alongside yen volatility and labor-market tightness, have kept trader consensus dispersed rather than concentrated on any single band. Key upcoming catalysts include June industrial production and retail sales data, which could shift implied probabilities ahead of the August release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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