Trader consensus on Polymarket gives the Republican Party a 67.5% implied probability to win New York's 11th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Nicole Malliotakis's commanding position running unopposed in the June 23 Republican primary. The Staten Island-based district, home to many working-class voters including police and firefighters, has trended rightward and carries Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. A March Supreme Court decision preserved the current map against Democratic redistricting, solidifying her advantage. Democrats face a fragmented primary field—Allison Ziogas, Michael DeCillis, and others—with minimal fundraising versus Malliotakis's $2.5 million cash on hand as of late March. No public polls have emerged recently, underscoring her incumbency edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-11 House Election Winner
NY-11 House Election Winner
$10,820 Vol.
$10,820 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
66%
Democratic Party
34%
$10,820 Vol.
$10,820 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,634 Vol.
66%
Democratic Party
$4,186 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket gives the Republican Party a 67.5% implied probability to win New York's 11th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Nicole Malliotakis's commanding position running unopposed in the June 23 Republican primary. The Staten Island-based district, home to many working-class voters including police and firefighters, has trended rightward and carries Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. A March Supreme Court decision preserved the current map against Democratic redistricting, solidifying her advantage. Democrats face a fragmented primary field—Allison Ziogas, Michael DeCillis, and others—with minimal fundraising versus Malliotakis's $2.5 million cash on hand as of late March. No public polls have emerged recently, underscoring her incumbency edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$10,820End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket gives the Republican Party a 67.5% implied probability to win New York's 11th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Nicole Malliotakis's commanding position running unopposed in the June 23 Republican primary. The Staten Island-based district, home to many working-class voters including police and firefighters, has trended rightward and carries Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. A March Supreme Court decision preserved the current map against Democratic redistricting, solidifying her advantage. Democrats face a fragmented primary field—Allison Ziogas, Michael DeCillis, and others—with minimal fundraising versus Malliotakis's $2.5 million cash on hand as of late March. No public polls have emerged recently, underscoring her incumbency edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,820End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives the Republican Party a 67.5% implied probability to win New York's 11th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Nicole Malliotakis's commanding position running unopposed in the June 23 Republican primary. The Staten Island-based district, home to many working-class voters including police and firefighters, has trended rightward and carries Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. A March Supreme Court decision preserved the current map against Democratic redistricting, solidifying her advantage. Democrats face a fragmented primary field—Allison Ziogas, Michael DeCillis, and others—with minimal fundraising versus Malliotakis's $2.5 million cash on hand as of late March. No public polls have emerged recently, underscoring her incumbency edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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