Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to retain New York's 6th congressional district seat, reflecting longtime incumbent Grace Meng's entrenched advantages in the solidly blue Queens area anchored in Flushing. Meng, who cruised to reelection in 2024 with overwhelming margins, recently secured endorsements from State Sen. John Liu in March and the New York State United Teachers in April, strengthening her position ahead of the June 23 closed Democratic primary against progressive challenger Chuck Park. No major Republican candidates have emerged, consistent with the district's historical GOP weakness despite recent shifts among Asian American voters. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, recruitment of a strong GOP contender, or a national Republican midterm wave, though such shifts remain low-probability absent scandals or late-breaking developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-06 House Election Winner
NY-06 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,908 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$1,120 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to retain New York's 6th congressional district seat, reflecting longtime incumbent Grace Meng's entrenched advantages in the solidly blue Queens area anchored in Flushing. Meng, who cruised to reelection in 2024 with overwhelming margins, recently secured endorsements from State Sen. John Liu in March and the New York State United Teachers in April, strengthening her position ahead of the June 23 closed Democratic primary against progressive challenger Chuck Park. No major Republican candidates have emerged, consistent with the district's historical GOP weakness despite recent shifts among Asian American voters. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, recruitment of a strong GOP contender, or a national Republican midterm wave, though such shifts remain low-probability absent scandals or late-breaking developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$4,028End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to retain New York's 6th congressional district seat, reflecting longtime incumbent Grace Meng's entrenched advantages in the solidly blue Queens area anchored in Flushing. Meng, who cruised to reelection in 2024 with overwhelming margins, recently secured endorsements from State Sen. John Liu in March and the New York State United Teachers in April, strengthening her position ahead of the June 23 closed Democratic primary against progressive challenger Chuck Park. No major Republican candidates have emerged, consistent with the district's historical GOP weakness despite recent shifts among Asian American voters. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, recruitment of a strong GOP contender, or a national Republican midterm wave, though such shifts remain low-probability absent scandals or late-breaking developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,028End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to retain New York's 6th congressional district seat, reflecting longtime incumbent Grace Meng's entrenched advantages in the solidly blue Queens area anchored in Flushing. Meng, who cruised to reelection in 2024 with overwhelming margins, recently secured endorsements from State Sen. John Liu in March and the New York State United Teachers in April, strengthening her position ahead of the June 23 closed Democratic primary against progressive challenger Chuck Park. No major Republican candidates have emerged, consistent with the district's historical GOP weakness despite recent shifts among Asian American voters. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, recruitment of a strong GOP contender, or a national Republican midterm wave, though such shifts remain low-probability absent scandals or late-breaking developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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