Incumbent Rep. Eric Burlison's commanding position in the deep-red Missouri 7th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with a R+21 partisan voting index, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. Burlison, who won 71.6% in 2024 against Democrat Missi Hesketh, boasts over $850,000 cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing challengers in the August 4 Republican primary—construction worker John Casey and young insurance manager Grayson Hunt—and Hesketh's $20,000 in the Democratic primary. Absent polls, historical 70%+ GOP margins and weak opposition sustain the lopsided odds, though a primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, Burlison scandal, or national Democratic wave could shift dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-07 House Election Winner
MO-07 House Election Winner
$14,375 Vol.
$14,375 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
7%
$14,375 Vol.
$14,375 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$12,206 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$2,169 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Eric Burlison's commanding position in the deep-red Missouri 7th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with a R+21 partisan voting index, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. Burlison, who won 71.6% in 2024 against Democrat Missi Hesketh, boasts over $850,000 cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing challengers in the August 4 Republican primary—construction worker John Casey and young insurance manager Grayson Hunt—and Hesketh's $20,000 in the Democratic primary. Absent polls, historical 70%+ GOP margins and weak opposition sustain the lopsided odds, though a primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, Burlison scandal, or national Democratic wave could shift dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$14,375End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Eric Burlison's commanding position in the deep-red Missouri 7th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with a R+21 partisan voting index, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. Burlison, who won 71.6% in 2024 against Democrat Missi Hesketh, boasts over $850,000 cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing challengers in the August 4 Republican primary—construction worker John Casey and young insurance manager Grayson Hunt—and Hesketh's $20,000 in the Democratic primary. Absent polls, historical 70%+ GOP margins and weak opposition sustain the lopsided odds, though a primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, Burlison scandal, or national Democratic wave could shift dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,375End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Eric Burlison's commanding position in the deep-red Missouri 7th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with a R+21 partisan voting index, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. Burlison, who won 71.6% in 2024 against Democrat Missi Hesketh, boasts over $850,000 cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing challengers in the August 4 Republican primary—construction worker John Casey and young insurance manager Grayson Hunt—and Hesketh's $20,000 in the Democratic primary. Absent polls, historical 70%+ GOP margins and weak opposition sustain the lopsided odds, though a primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, Burlison scandal, or national Democratic wave could shift dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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