US-Iran nuclear negotiations have stalled amid disagreements on uranium enrichment suspension duration, with the US demanding a 20-year ban and Iran offering only five years, while Tehran prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz before addressing its nuclear program. Recent diplomatic proposals from Iran to delay nuclear talks until after Hormuz concessions—rejected by the Trump administration—along with warnings of extended blockades and UAE's OPEC exit, have eroded optimism, pushing "No" odds to 59% trader consensus. IAEA reports highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities and ongoing high-enriched uranium stockpiling, underscoring persistent barriers despite earlier claims of progress. Upcoming rounds in Islamabad could shift dynamics, but structural impasses favor prolonged uncertainty through December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$121,711 Vol.
$121,711 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$121,711 Vol.
$121,711 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran nuclear negotiations have stalled amid disagreements on uranium enrichment suspension duration, with the US demanding a 20-year ban and Iran offering only five years, while Tehran prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz before addressing its nuclear program. Recent diplomatic proposals from Iran to delay nuclear talks until after Hormuz concessions—rejected by the Trump administration—along with warnings of extended blockades and UAE's OPEC exit, have eroded optimism, pushing "No" odds to 59% trader consensus. IAEA reports highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities and ongoing high-enriched uranium stockpiling, underscoring persistent barriers despite earlier claims of progress. Upcoming rounds in Islamabad could shift dynamics, but structural impasses favor prolonged uncertainty through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$121,711End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran nuclear negotiations have stalled amid disagreements on uranium enrichment suspension duration, with the US demanding a 20-year ban and Iran offering only five years, while Tehran prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz before addressing its nuclear program. Recent diplomatic proposals from Iran to delay nuclear talks until after Hormuz concessions—rejected by the Trump administration—along with warnings of extended blockades and UAE's OPEC exit, have eroded optimism, pushing "No" odds to 59% trader consensus. IAEA reports highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities and ongoing high-enriched uranium stockpiling, underscoring persistent barriers despite earlier claims of progress. Upcoming rounds in Islamabad could shift dynamics, but structural impasses favor prolonged uncertainty through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,711End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran nuclear negotiations have stalled amid disagreements on uranium enrichment suspension duration, with the US demanding a 20-year ban and Iran offering only five years, while Tehran prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz before addressing its nuclear program. Recent diplomatic proposals from Iran to delay nuclear talks until after Hormuz concessions—rejected by the Trump administration—along with warnings of extended blockades and UAE's OPEC exit, have eroded optimism, pushing "No" odds to 59% trader consensus. IAEA reports highlight Iran's restricted access to bombed facilities and ongoing high-enriched uranium stockpiling, underscoring persistent barriers despite earlier claims of progress. Upcoming rounds in Islamabad could shift dynamics, but structural impasses favor prolonged uncertainty through December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions