SpaceX's Falcon 9 fleet has driven trader consensus toward 160-179 launches in 2026, with markets implying 57% odds after the company achieved its 50th orbital mission by April 26—the fastest pace to that milestone—and reached 52 successes by May 1 per official tracking. This trajectory, averaging over 10 launches monthly, stems from reusable booster turnarounds exceeding 600 landings, high-volume Starlink deployments from SLC-40 and SLC-4E, and reliable operations amid dense scheduling like recent Viasat-3 F3 and multiple Starlink flights. Starship Flight 12 eyes early May orbital milestones, potentially adding 10-20 missions later via FAA-approved pads at Starbase and LC-39A, though regulatory caps and weather introduce uncertainty; next model runs and manifest updates will refine projections.