The dominant driver of current market-implied odds is the M7.8 mainshock off southern Mindanao, Philippines, on June 8, followed by aftershocks that included at least one confirmed M6.5 event in the Celebes Sea region, per USGS data. Global M6.5+ events typically average one to two per week and cluster along subduction zones and plate boundaries, with aftershock sequences decaying rapidly according to Omori’s law. No additional M6.5+ quakes have been recorded through June 13, and with only the final day of the window remaining, the absence of fresh triggering elsewhere has kept trader consensus concentrated on zero or one total event. USGS aftershock probability updates and any late model runs could still shift resolution if new events register.