Current forecasts from AEMET and major models position Madrid’s June 16 maximum near 33–34 °C under mostly sunny skies, light easterly flow, and modest subsidence that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with the 33 °C outcome carrying the highest implied probability because recent model runs have stabilized just below the next integer threshold while climatological normals for mid-June sit lower. Minor upside risk from any delayed Saharan plume or reduced mixing keeps the 34 °C contract competitive, but the absence of stronger warm-air advection or clear-sky amplification keeps higher values (35 °C+) at low single-digit odds. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance and short-range verification against historical verification error for the Retiro station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 16?
33°C 43%
34°C 31%
32°C 17%
35°C 5.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 jun 2026
30°C or below
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
17%
33°C
43%
34°C
31%
35°C
6%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 43%
34°C 31%
32°C 17%
35°C 5.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 jun 2026
30°C or below
$765 Vol.
2%
31°C
$968 Vol.
2%
32°C
$1,059 Vol.
17%
33°C
$883 Vol.
43%
34°C
$530 Vol.
31%
35°C
$1,020 Vol.
6%
36°C
$658 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$1,015 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$489 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$376 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$456 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from AEMET and major models position Madrid’s June 16 maximum near 33–34 °C under mostly sunny skies, light easterly flow, and modest subsidence that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with the 33 °C outcome carrying the highest implied probability because recent model runs have stabilized just below the next integer threshold while climatological normals for mid-June sit lower. Minor upside risk from any delayed Saharan plume or reduced mixing keeps the 34 °C contract competitive, but the absence of stronger warm-air advection or clear-sky amplification keeps higher values (35 °C+) at low single-digit odds. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance and short-range verification against historical verification error for the Retiro station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$8,009Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from AEMET and major models position Madrid’s June 16 maximum near 33–34 °C under mostly sunny skies, light easterly flow, and modest subsidence that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with the 33 °C outcome carrying the highest implied probability because recent model runs have stabilized just below the next integer threshold while climatological normals for mid-June sit lower. Minor upside risk from any delayed Saharan plume or reduced mixing keeps the 34 °C contract competitive, but the absence of stronger warm-air advection or clear-sky amplification keeps higher values (35 °C+) at low single-digit odds. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance and short-range verification against historical verification error for the Retiro station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$8,009Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from AEMET and major models position Madrid’s June 16 maximum near 33–34 °C under mostly sunny skies, light easterly flow, and modest subsidence that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with the 33 °C outcome carrying the highest implied probability because recent model runs have stabilized just below the next integer threshold while climatological normals for mid-June sit lower. Minor upside risk from any delayed Saharan plume or reduced mixing keeps the 34 °C contract competitive, but the absence of stronger warm-air advection or clear-sky amplification keeps higher values (35 °C+) at low single-digit odds. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance and short-range verification against historical verification error for the Retiro station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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