Incumbent Rep. Ed Case's commanding fundraising lead—$890,000 cash on hand as of late March—and Hawaii's 1st Congressional District's solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 93.5%, reflecting the seat's historical dominance with margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features Case against state Rep. Della Au Belatti, Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, and others, while underfunded Republicans Maxwell Frazier and Adriel Lam pose minimal general election threat. Recent quarterly finance reports reinforce Case's edge without notable shifts; scenarios like a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee or an extraordinary national GOP midterm wave could challenge odds, though structural barriers loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,210 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$2,120 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ed Case's commanding fundraising lead—$890,000 cash on hand as of late March—and Hawaii's 1st Congressional District's solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 93.5%, reflecting the seat's historical dominance with margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features Case against state Rep. Della Au Belatti, Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, and others, while underfunded Republicans Maxwell Frazier and Adriel Lam pose minimal general election threat. Recent quarterly finance reports reinforce Case's edge without notable shifts; scenarios like a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee or an extraordinary national GOP midterm wave could challenge odds, though structural barriers loom large.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$8,330End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ed Case's commanding fundraising lead—$890,000 cash on hand as of late March—and Hawaii's 1st Congressional District's solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 93.5%, reflecting the seat's historical dominance with margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features Case against state Rep. Della Au Belatti, Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, and others, while underfunded Republicans Maxwell Frazier and Adriel Lam pose minimal general election threat. Recent quarterly finance reports reinforce Case's edge without notable shifts; scenarios like a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee or an extraordinary national GOP midterm wave could challenge odds, though structural barriers loom large.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,330End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ed Case's commanding fundraising lead—$890,000 cash on hand as of late March—and Hawaii's 1st Congressional District's solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 93.5%, reflecting the seat's historical dominance with margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features Case against state Rep. Della Au Belatti, Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, and others, while underfunded Republicans Maxwell Frazier and Adriel Lam pose minimal general election threat. Recent quarterly finance reports reinforce Case's edge without notable shifts; scenarios like a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee or an extraordinary national GOP midterm wave could challenge odds, though structural barriers loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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