Discord's recent operational stability underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability of no critical (red) incident by June 30. The platform's official status page has logged no incidents since late May, following earlier 2026 outages that were resolved without escalating to critical severity. Traders cite this clean recent record, combined with the platform's history of managing voice, API, and connection issues swiftly, as the main driver of consensus. With roughly three weeks remaining, the absence of ongoing disruptions or announced vulnerabilities leaves little momentum for a sudden red-level event, though any major service-wide failure before the deadline could still shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.Discord's recent operational stability underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability of no critical (red) incident by June 30. The platform's official status page has logged no incidents since late May, following earlier 2026 outages that were resolved without escalating to critical severity. Traders cite this clean recent record, combined with the platform's history of managing voice, API, and connection issues swiftly, as the main driver of consensus. With roughly three weeks remaining, the absence of ongoing disruptions or announced vulnerabilities leaves little momentum for a sudden red-level event, though any major service-wide failure before the deadline could still shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 6:34 PM ET
Volume
$545End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 6:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.Discord's recent operational stability underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability of no critical (red) incident by June 30. The platform's official status page has logged no incidents since late May, following earlier 2026 outages that were resolved without escalating to critical severity. Traders cite this clean recent record, combined with the platform's history of managing voice, API, and connection issues swiftly, as the main driver of consensus. With roughly three weeks remaining, the absence of ongoing disruptions or announced vulnerabilities leaves little momentum for a sudden red-level event, though any major service-wide failure before the deadline could still shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical.
Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.
Volume
$545End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 6:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Discord's recent operational stability underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability of no critical (red) incident by June 30. The platform's official status page has logged no incidents since late May, following earlier 2026 outages that were resolved without escalating to critical severity. Traders cite this clean recent record, combined with the platform's history of managing voice, API, and connection issues swiftly, as the main driver of consensus. With roughly three weeks remaining, the absence of ongoing disruptions or announced vulnerabilities leaves little momentum for a sudden red-level event, though any major service-wide failure before the deadline could still shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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