Recent April 2026 core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.6% in March, has anchored trader expectations for the May reading due June 10, with Cleveland Fed nowcasts holding steady near 2.82%. Persistent shelter costs, goods-price pressures, and potential tariff pass-through sustain upside risks, while the absence of major new data since the April release keeps outcomes tightly clustered. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with 2.9% and 2.8% as near-even frontrunners amid consensus forecasts of modest monthly gains around 0.2–0.3%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCore CPI YoY - May 2026
2.8% 43%
3.1% 37.0%
2.9% 29%
3.2% 18.9%
≤2.4%
1%
2.5%
6%
2.6%
7%
2.7%
10%
2.8%
43%
2.9%
51%
3.0%
10%
3.1%
37%
3.2%
19%
≥3.3%
17%
2.8% 43%
3.1% 37.0%
2.9% 29%
3.2% 18.9%
≤2.4%
1%
2.5%
6%
2.6%
7%
2.7%
10%
2.8%
43%
2.9%
51%
3.0%
10%
3.1%
37%
3.2%
19%
≥3.3%
17%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.6% in March, has anchored trader expectations for the May reading due June 10, with Cleveland Fed nowcasts holding steady near 2.82%. Persistent shelter costs, goods-price pressures, and potential tariff pass-through sustain upside risks, while the absence of major new data since the April release keeps outcomes tightly clustered. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with 2.9% and 2.8% as near-even frontrunners amid consensus forecasts of modest monthly gains around 0.2–0.3%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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