Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 0.6-1.0% range at 38% implied probability, reflecting March 2026's year-on-year CPI rise of 1.0%—below the 1.2% consensus forecast and cooling from February's three-year high of 1.3%—with Q1 averaging 0.9%. Producer prices flipped positive to 0.5% year-on-year after 41 months of deflation, boosted by commodity pressures from geopolitical oil shocks, yet weak domestic demand tempers reacceleration risks. Analyst revisions, including Nomura's 0.6% full-year call and BofA's 0.8%, anchor low-inflation positioning, while 19% odds on -0.9 to -0.5% capture persistent consumption softness. April CPI, expected mid-May, represents the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChina Annual Inflation 2026
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0% 39%
1.1 – 1.5% 28%
1.6 – 2.0% 13.0%
2.5%+ 10.7%
$35,905 Vol.
$35,905 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
15%
-0.9 – -0.5%
18%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
6%
0.6 – 1.0%
39%
1.1 – 1.5%
28%
1.6 – 2.0%
17%
2.0-2.4%
11%
2.5%+
11%
0.6 – 1.0% 39%
1.1 – 1.5% 28%
1.6 – 2.0% 13.0%
2.5%+ 10.7%
$35,905 Vol.
$35,905 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
$17,106 Vol.
15%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$1,976 Vol.
18%
-0.4 – 0.0%
$2,134 Vol.
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
$2,079 Vol.
6%
0.6 – 1.0%
$2,531 Vol.
39%
1.1 – 1.5%
$2,796 Vol.
28%
1.6 – 2.0%
$3,139 Vol.
17%
2.0-2.4%
$2,051 Vol.
11%
2.5%+
$2,092 Vol.
11%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 0.6-1.0% range at 38% implied probability, reflecting March 2026's year-on-year CPI rise of 1.0%—below the 1.2% consensus forecast and cooling from February's three-year high of 1.3%—with Q1 averaging 0.9%. Producer prices flipped positive to 0.5% year-on-year after 41 months of deflation, boosted by commodity pressures from geopolitical oil shocks, yet weak domestic demand tempers reacceleration risks. Analyst revisions, including Nomura's 0.6% full-year call and BofA's 0.8%, anchor low-inflation positioning, while 19% odds on -0.9 to -0.5% capture persistent consumption softness. April CPI, expected mid-May, represents the key near-term catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$35,905End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 0.6-1.0% range at 38% implied probability, reflecting March 2026's year-on-year CPI rise of 1.0%—below the 1.2% consensus forecast and cooling from February's three-year high of 1.3%—with Q1 averaging 0.9%. Producer prices flipped positive to 0.5% year-on-year after 41 months of deflation, boosted by commodity pressures from geopolitical oil shocks, yet weak domestic demand tempers reacceleration risks. Analyst revisions, including Nomura's 0.6% full-year call and BofA's 0.8%, anchor low-inflation positioning, while 19% odds on -0.9 to -0.5% capture persistent consumption softness. April CPI, expected mid-May, represents the key near-term catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$35,905End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 0.6-1.0% range at 38% implied probability, reflecting March 2026's year-on-year CPI rise of 1.0%—below the 1.2% consensus forecast and cooling from February's three-year high of 1.3%—with Q1 averaging 0.9%. Producer prices flipped positive to 0.5% year-on-year after 41 months of deflation, boosted by commodity pressures from geopolitical oil shocks, yet weak domestic demand tempers reacceleration risks. Analyst revisions, including Nomura's 0.6% full-year call and BofA's 0.8%, anchor low-inflation positioning, while 19% odds on -0.9 to -0.5% capture persistent consumption softness. April CPI, expected mid-May, represents the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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