Polymarket traders assign a leading 42.5% implied probability to China's 2026 annual CPI falling in the 0.6–1.0% band, balancing Middle East energy shocks against subdued domestic demand. March CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year—below the 1.2% consensus—with Q1 averaging 0.9%, while producer prices turned positive for the first time in over three years amid Iran-related oil surges. April factory PMI input price inflation hit a four-year high, per Caixin data, signaling potential CPI spillover, yet weak consumer spending caps upside. Forecasts from Goldman Sachs (0.8%) and others cluster near 0.6%, aligning with sentiment favoring modest gains over deflation (-0.9 to -0.5% at 17%). April CPI, due May 10, looms as the next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChina Annual Inflation 2026
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0% 47%
1.1 – 1.5% 22%
1.6 – 2.0% 13.0%
2.5%+ 10.9%
$35,915 Vol.
$35,915 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
3%
-0.9 – -0.5%
18%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
6%
0.6 – 1.0%
47%
1.1 – 1.5%
22%
1.6 – 2.0%
18%
2.0-2.4%
10%
2.5%+
11%
0.6 – 1.0% 47%
1.1 – 1.5% 22%
1.6 – 2.0% 13.0%
2.5%+ 10.9%
$35,915 Vol.
$35,915 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
$17,106 Vol.
3%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$1,976 Vol.
18%
-0.4 – 0.0%
$2,134 Vol.
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
$2,079 Vol.
6%
0.6 – 1.0%
$2,542 Vol.
47%
1.1 – 1.5%
$2,796 Vol.
22%
1.6 – 2.0%
$3,139 Vol.
18%
2.0-2.4%
$2,051 Vol.
10%
2.5%+
$2,092 Vol.
11%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders assign a leading 42.5% implied probability to China's 2026 annual CPI falling in the 0.6–1.0% band, balancing Middle East energy shocks against subdued domestic demand. March CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year—below the 1.2% consensus—with Q1 averaging 0.9%, while producer prices turned positive for the first time in over three years amid Iran-related oil surges. April factory PMI input price inflation hit a four-year high, per Caixin data, signaling potential CPI spillover, yet weak consumer spending caps upside. Forecasts from Goldman Sachs (0.8%) and others cluster near 0.6%, aligning with sentiment favoring modest gains over deflation (-0.9 to -0.5% at 17%). April CPI, due May 10, looms as the next catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$35,915End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders assign a leading 42.5% implied probability to China's 2026 annual CPI falling in the 0.6–1.0% band, balancing Middle East energy shocks against subdued domestic demand. March CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year—below the 1.2% consensus—with Q1 averaging 0.9%, while producer prices turned positive for the first time in over three years amid Iran-related oil surges. April factory PMI input price inflation hit a four-year high, per Caixin data, signaling potential CPI spillover, yet weak consumer spending caps upside. Forecasts from Goldman Sachs (0.8%) and others cluster near 0.6%, aligning with sentiment favoring modest gains over deflation (-0.9 to -0.5% at 17%). April CPI, due May 10, looms as the next catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$35,915End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a leading 42.5% implied probability to China's 2026 annual CPI falling in the 0.6–1.0% band, balancing Middle East energy shocks against subdued domestic demand. March CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year—below the 1.2% consensus—with Q1 averaging 0.9%, while producer prices turned positive for the first time in over three years amid Iran-related oil surges. April factory PMI input price inflation hit a four-year high, per Caixin data, signaling potential CPI spillover, yet weak consumer spending caps upside. Forecasts from Goldman Sachs (0.8%) and others cluster near 0.6%, aligning with sentiment favoring modest gains over deflation (-0.9 to -0.5% at 17%). April CPI, due May 10, looms as the next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions