Skip to main content
icon for AZ-02 House Election Winner
Politics·Nov 4 Elections

AZ-02 House Election Winner

icon for AZ-02 House Election Winner
Politics·Nov 4 Elections

AZ-02 House Election Winner

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Republican Party

$315 Vol.

65%

Democratic Party

$201 Vol.

38%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a strong position in the Republican-leaning AZ-02 district (Cook PVI R+7), bolstering trader consensus at 64% for the GOP in the November 2026 general election. Crane, a former Navy SEAL, secured signatures for the ballot in March and faces no notable primary challengers ahead of the July 21 Republican primary. Democratic nominee Jonathan Nez, former Navajo Nation president challenging Crane for the second time, raised $1 million in Q1 fundraising reported April 3 and earned DCCC Red-to-Blue designation with leader support in February, lifting Democratic odds to 34% amid rural voter outreach on healthcare and costs. Absent recent polls, the district's structural Republican edge and incumbency sustain the market's tilt, with the Democratic primary as the next key event.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$516
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a strong position in the Republican-leaning AZ-02 district (Cook PVI R+7), bolstering trader consensus at 64% for the GOP in the November 2026 general election. Crane, a former Navy SEAL, secured signatures for the ballot in March and faces no notable primary challengers ahead of the July 21 Republican primary. Democratic nominee Jonathan Nez, former Navajo Nation president challenging Crane for the second time, raised $1 million in Q1 fundraising reported April 3 and earned DCCC Red-to-Blue designation with leader support in February, lifting Democratic odds to 34% amid rural voter outreach on healthcare and costs. Absent recent polls, the district's structural Republican edge and incumbency sustain the market's tilt, with the Democratic primary as the next key event.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$516
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Related

icon for Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

73%
icon for Will the Republican Party win the AZ-08 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the AZ-08 House seat?

77%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-07 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-07 House seat?

91%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-02 House Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Republican Party" at 65%, followed by "Democratic Party" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"AZ-02 House Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 16, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "AZ-02 House Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-02 House Election Winner" is "Republican Party" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Democratic Party" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-02 House Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.