Polymarket traders show evenly split implied probabilities at 50% across May CPI bins from ≤2.1% to 4.0%+, reflecting high uncertainty clustered near 2.5% amid conflicting signals. March's 3.4% month-over-month print—driven by 12.1% education surge—marked 2026's highest, but April private estimates indicate first slowdown in nearly a year at 2.4–2.6% (Buenos Aires city: 2.5%; BCRA REM median: 2.6%). May faces headwinds from regulated price hikes, including transport (5.4%), peajes (5.4%), water (3%), and prepagas (3–3.9%), potentially countering fiscal disinflation efforts. Imminent official INDEC April release and early May dynamics remain key catalysts for sentiment shifts, with annual 2026 forecasts up to 30.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.5–2.7% 50%
2.8–3.0% 50%
3.1–3.3% 49%
3.4–3.6% 49%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
≤2.1%
49%
2.2–2.4%
47%
2.5–2.7%
50%
2.8–3.0%
50%
3.1–3.3%
49%
3.4–3.6%
49%
3.7–3.9%
47%
4.0%+
47%
2.5–2.7% 50%
2.8–3.0% 50%
3.1–3.3% 49%
3.4–3.6% 49%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
≤2.1%
$0 Vol.
49%
2.2–2.4%
$0 Vol.
47%
2.5–2.7%
$0 Vol.
50%
2.8–3.0%
$0 Vol.
50%
3.1–3.3%
$0 Vol.
49%
3.4–3.6%
$0 Vol.
49%
3.7–3.9%
$0 Vol.
47%
4.0%+
$0 Vol.
47%
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders show evenly split implied probabilities at 50% across May CPI bins from ≤2.1% to 4.0%+, reflecting high uncertainty clustered near 2.5% amid conflicting signals. March's 3.4% month-over-month print—driven by 12.1% education surge—marked 2026's highest, but April private estimates indicate first slowdown in nearly a year at 2.4–2.6% (Buenos Aires city: 2.5%; BCRA REM median: 2.6%). May faces headwinds from regulated price hikes, including transport (5.4%), peajes (5.4%), water (3%), and prepagas (3–3.9%), potentially countering fiscal disinflation efforts. Imminent official INDEC April release and early May dynamics remain key catalysts for sentiment shifts, with annual 2026 forecasts up to 30.5%.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders show evenly split implied probabilities at 50% across May CPI bins from ≤2.1% to 4.0%+, reflecting high uncertainty clustered near 2.5% amid conflicting signals. March's 3.4% month-over-month print—driven by 12.1% education surge—marked 2026's highest, but April private estimates indicate first slowdown in nearly a year at 2.4–2.6% (Buenos Aires city: 2.5%; BCRA REM median: 2.6%). May faces headwinds from regulated price hikes, including transport (5.4%), peajes (5.4%), water (3%), and prepagas (3–3.9%), potentially countering fiscal disinflation efforts. Imminent official INDEC April release and early May dynamics remain key catalysts for sentiment shifts, with annual 2026 forecasts up to 30.5%.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders show evenly split implied probabilities at 50% across May CPI bins from ≤2.1% to 4.0%+, reflecting high uncertainty clustered near 2.5% amid conflicting signals. March's 3.4% month-over-month print—driven by 12.1% education surge—marked 2026's highest, but April private estimates indicate first slowdown in nearly a year at 2.4–2.6% (Buenos Aires city: 2.5%; BCRA REM median: 2.6%). May faces headwinds from regulated price hikes, including transport (5.4%), peajes (5.4%), water (3%), and prepagas (3–3.9%), potentially countering fiscal disinflation efforts. Imminent official INDEC April release and early May dynamics remain key catalysts for sentiment shifts, with annual 2026 forecasts up to 30.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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