¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?
$990,667 Vol.
31 dic 2026
30 de junio
$747,910 Vol.
<1%
December 31
$242,757 Vol.
8%
$990,667 Vol.
30 de junio
$747,910 Vol.
<1%
December 31
$242,757 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.Ukraine has intensified long- and intermediate-range drone and missile strikes on Russian logistics routes, bridges, fuel depots, and military sites across occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine in recent weeks, including attacks on the Chonhar bridge and North Crimean Canal crossings that disrupted supply flows and triggered gasoline shortages in Sevastopol. These operations aim to isolate the peninsula by targeting ground lines of communication from occupied Kherson and Mariupol areas, where Ukrainian forces report sharp reductions in Russian cargo traffic. Broader 2026 battlefield trends show Ukraine regaining more territory than lost in certain periods, with official claims exceeding 600 square kilometers recaptured year-to-date, alongside Russian advances slowing. Full territorial recapture of Crimea would require a sustained mechanized offensive beyond current deep-strike and interdiction efforts. Upcoming factors include continued Western equipment deliveries and any escalation in Russian countermeasures or diplomatic talks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukraine has intensified long- and intermediate-range drone and missile strikes on Russian logistics routes, bridges, fuel depots, and military sites across occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine in recent weeks, including attacks on the Chonhar bridge and North Crimean Canal crossings that disrupted supply flows and triggered gasoline shortages in Sevastopol. These operations aim to isolate the peninsula by targeting ground lines of communication from occupied Kherson and Mariupol areas, where Ukrainian forces report sharp reductions in Russian cargo traffic. Broader 2026 battlefield trends show Ukraine regaining more territory than lost in certain periods, with official claims exceeding 600 square kilometers recaptured year-to-date, alongside Russian advances slowing. Full territorial recapture of Crimea would require a sustained mechanized offensive beyond current deep-strike and interdiction efforts. Upcoming factors include continued Western equipment deliveries and any escalation in Russian countermeasures or diplomatic talks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Jun 13 2026
Ukrainian Forces Strike Key Chonhar Crossing Linking Crimea to Mainland
December 31 dips to 8%2%
Ukrainian forces successfully targeted a critical crossing near Chonhar, further disrupting Russian military logistics and transport routes into occupied Crimea.
Jun 8 2026
Ukraine Recaptures Over 600 Square Kilometers of Territory in 2026
Ukraine's top military commander reported significant territorial gains in 2026, though these successes were concentrated in the south and southeast mainland rather than Crimea.
Jun 6 2026
Luhansk Occupation Officials Ban Commercial Transport on Key Highway to Crimea
December 31 rises to 16%2%
Due to intensifying Ukrainian mid-range strikes, occupation authorities restricted commercial passenger vehicles from using the M-14 Rostov-Crimea highway.
May 30 2026
Ukraine Strikes Marine Oil Terminal in Occupied Feodosia
December 31 jumps to 24%13%
Ukrainian forces targeted critical fuel infrastructure in Crimea, damaging multiple oil tanks and exacerbating localized gasoline shortages on the peninsula.
May 28 2026
Ukrainian drone campaign limits Russian logistics
December 31 plunges to 11%40%
ISW reported that Ukrainian mid-range and frontline drone attacks were degrading Russia's ability to transport personnel and supplies to frontline positions, including key ground lines of communication connecting Russia to occupied Crimea.
May 27 2026
Ukrainian Defense Minister announces logistics lockdown
December 31 rises to 54%3%
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a 'logistics lockdown' to scale up middle-range drone strikes against Russian supply lines, signaling a strategic shift in Ukraine's offensive posture.
May 27 2026
Ukraine Launches 'Logistics Lockdown' to Disrupt Russian Supply Lines to Crimea
December 31 plunges to 8%43%
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a coordinated campaign targeting Russian ground lines of communication, including the M-14 highway connecting Russia to occupied Crimea.
May 26 2026
ISW report shows Russia's territorial net loss in Ukraine
December 31 rises to 54%3%
ISW reported that Russian forces recorded a net loss of 100 square miles of Ukrainian territory in April-May 2026, marking a significant reversal in the territorial control dynamics.
Mar 30 2026
Ukrainian forces destroy multiple Russian MLRS systems in occupied Crimea
On March 30, Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces confirmed destruction of three Russian multiple launch rocket systems in Crimea, continuing Ukraine's long-range strike campaign. Despite these attacks, no ground territorial gains in Crimea were reported, keeping market price low.
Mar 21 2026
Russia to deploy mobilized personnel from Crimea to Ukraine frontlines starting April 1
A Ukrainian official stated Russia will begin using mobilized personnel currently in Crimea in combat operations in Ukraine starting April 1, indicating Russian efforts to reinforce Crimea defenses. This suggested Ukraine faces challenges in recapturing Crimea soon, limiting market price increases.
Mar 18 2026
ISW reports Ukrainian forces liberated 33 sq miles of territory in Feb-Mar 2026
ISW data showed Ukrainian forces liberated 33 square miles of territory between February 17 and March 17, 2026, marking continued but limited gains in Ukraine-controlled areas. No territorial gains in Crimea were reported, maintaining low market confidence for Crimea recapture by June 30.
Mar 2 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky reports 460 sq km regained since start of 2026
June 30 rises to 5%2%
President Zelensky stated Ukrainian forces have regained about 460 square kilometers since the start of 2026, reflecting ongoing Ukrainian advances in southern and eastern Ukraine but not in Crimea. This modest progress raised some market optimism but did not affect Crimea control probabilities.
On February 27, Ukrainian forces conducted a long-range strike on the Yevpatoriya Aviation Plant in occupied Crimea, targeting Russian drones. This demonstrated Ukraine's capability to strike deep into Crimea but did not indicate any ground territorial gains there, keeping the market price low.
Jan 27 2026
Ukrainian strikes hit radar station in occupied Crimea
June 30 rises to 4%1%
The Ukrainian General Staff reported strikes on a radar station in Crimea and other targets, continuing Ukraine's campaign of attacks on Russian military assets in Crimea but with no territorial changes, keeping market prices low.
Jan 20 2026
Ukrainian forces continue strikes on Russian military targets in Crimea
June 30 rises to 7%1%
On January 19-20, Ukrainian forces maintained their drone and missile strikes against Russian military infrastructure in Crimea, sustaining military pressure but without any reported territorial gains, causing minor market fluctuations.
Jan 7 2026
Ukrainian forces conduct drone strike on Russian fuel depot in occupied Crimea
June 30 rises to 8%4%
Between January 2 and 7, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian fuel and lubricants warehouse near Sorokyne and continued mid-range strikes on military targets in Crimea, signaling ongoing pressure but no territorial recapture in Crimea, reflected in a slight price increase.
Jan 6 2026
Explosions and Air Defense Operations Reported Across Occupied Crimea
June 30 jumps to 10%5%
A series of drone attacks and explosions targeted key Russian military installations in Crimea, including the Saky airfield, keeping pressure on Russian forces and contributing to a temporary price spike.
Jan 1 2026
Drone attacks target multiple locations in occupied Crimea
June 30 rises to 4%1%
On New Year's night, Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on military targets across Crimea, including Saky airfield, Simferopol, Sevastopol, and Kerch. These attacks demonstrated Ukraine's capability to strike deep into occupied Crimea but did not result in territorial gains, keeping market confidence low.
Jan 1 2026
DeepState Reports Crimea Remains 100% Occupied as Russia Seizes Over 4,000 Square Kilometers in 2025
A year-end analysis by DeepState highlighted that despite Ukrainian strike efforts, Crimea remained fully occupied by Russia, underscoring the immense difficulty of any near-term recapture.
Dec 31 2025
Ukrainian Forces Escalate Mid-Range Strikes on Russian Energy and Military Assets in Crimea
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces significantly escalated strikes on Russian military and energy assets in occupied territories, including Crimea, on December 30 and 31.
Dec 26 2025
Ukrainian Intelligence Reports Successful Strikes on Russian Air Defense Systems in Crimea
Ukraine's GUR reported successful strikes on multiple high-value Russian targets in Crimea, including S-300V and Buk-M3 air defense components, degrading Russian defensive capabilities on the peninsula.
Dec 24 2025
Ukraine Launches Long-Range Strikes Against Russian Military Infrastructure in Occupied Crimea
June 30 rises to 4%1%
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of long-range strikes targeting Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea on the night of December 23 to 24, demonstrating continued capability to strike deep behind the frontlines.
Dec 14 2025
Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian fuel train and oil depots in Crimea
June 30 dips to 3%1%
On December 14, 2025, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces published footage of drone strikes on a Russian fuel train and oil depots in Crimea, causing fires and power outages. While these strikes degraded Russian military logistics, they did not result in Ukrainian territorial control in Crimea, maintaining the market's low probability for recapture.
Dec 8 2025
Ukrainian forces conduct drone strikes on military and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea
June 30 dips to 4%2%
On December 8-9, 2025, Ukrainian forces targeted occupied Crimea with drone strikes against military and energy infrastructure, causing fires and disruptions but no territorial gains. These attacks demonstrated Ukraine's capability to strike Crimea but did not translate into control of territory, keeping market expectations low.
Nov 20 2025
US officials develop peace plan recognizing Crimea as de facto Russian territory
On November 20, 2025, US officials confirmed working on a peace plan that would recognize Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto Russian territory, including by the US. This diplomatic development signaled low likelihood of Ukrainian recapture of Crimea by mid-2026, contributing to market price decline.
Oct 28 2025
Russian forces advance in southern Pokrovsk and northeastern Myrnohrad, no Crimea gains
June 30 rises to 12%4%
In late October 2025, Russian forces made slow advances in eastern Ukraine near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, while Ukrainian forces faced challenges defending these areas. There were no reports or ISW map indications of Ukrainian territorial gains in Crimea, keeping market expectations for Crimea recapture low.
Oct 17 2025
Russian air defenses mistakenly shoot down own fighter jet over occupied Crimea
On October 17, 2025, Russian air defenses shot down their own Su-30SM fighter jet over occupied Crimea, highlighting ongoing military activity but no Ukrainian territorial gains in Crimea. This incident underscored the contested and militarized nature of Crimea but did not indicate any Ukrainian recapture, maintaining low market confidence.
Oct 13 2025
Ukrainian forces strike Feodosia Offshore Oil Terminal in Crimea causing large fire
June 30 dips to 8%1%
On October 13, Ukrainian forces struck the Feodosia Offshore Oil Terminal in occupied Crimea, damaging fuel tanks and causing a large-scale fire. While this demonstrated Ukraine's ability to conduct impactful strikes inside Crimea, it did not involve ground territorial gains, thus not improving the market's outlook for recapture by June 30.
Oct 2 2025
Ukrainian Special Ops neutralize Russian S-400 radar station in Crimea
On October 2, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces targeted and neutralized the radar station of Russia’s S-400 air defense system in Crimea, degrading Russian air defense capabilities. This strike was significant militarily but did not translate into Ukrainian territorial gains in Crimea, maintaining low market confidence in recapture by June 30.
Sep 24 2025
Ukrainian drone strikes cause explosions near Russian military airfields in Crimea
June 30 drops to 8%12%
On September 24, Ukrainian drones struck near Belbek and Kacha airfields in occupied Crimea, causing explosions and damage to Russian military aircraft. Despite these attacks, no Ukrainian ground forces captured territory in Crimea, limiting the impact on the market's outlook for territorial recapture.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.Ukraine has intensified long- and intermediate-range drone and missile strikes on Russian logistics routes, bridges, fuel depots, and military sites across occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine in recent weeks, including attacks on the Chonhar bridge and North Crimean Canal crossings that disrupted supply flows and triggered gasoline shortages in Sevastopol. These operations aim to isolate the peninsula by targeting ground lines of communication from occupied Kherson and Mariupol areas, where Ukrainian forces report sharp reductions in Russian cargo traffic. Broader 2026 battlefield trends show Ukraine regaining more territory than lost in certain periods, with official claims exceeding 600 square kilometers recaptured year-to-date, alongside Russian advances slowing. Full territorial recapture of Crimea would require a sustained mechanized offensive beyond current deep-strike and interdiction efforts. Upcoming factors include continued Western equipment deliveries and any escalation in Russian countermeasures or diplomatic talks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukraine has intensified long- and intermediate-range drone and missile strikes on Russian logistics routes, bridges, fuel depots, and military sites across occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine in recent weeks, including attacks on the Chonhar bridge and North Crimean Canal crossings that disrupted supply flows and triggered gasoline shortages in Sevastopol. These operations aim to isolate the peninsula by targeting ground lines of communication from occupied Kherson and Mariupol areas, where Ukrainian forces report sharp reductions in Russian cargo traffic. Broader 2026 battlefield trends show Ukraine regaining more territory than lost in certain periods, with official claims exceeding 600 square kilometers recaptured year-to-date, alongside Russian advances slowing. Full territorial recapture of Crimea would require a sustained mechanized offensive beyond current deep-strike and interdiction efforts. Upcoming factors include continued Western equipment deliveries and any escalation in Russian countermeasures or diplomatic talks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Jun 13 2026
Ukrainian Forces Strike Key Chonhar Crossing Linking Crimea to Mainland
December 31 dips to 8%2%
Ukrainian forces successfully targeted a critical crossing near Chonhar, further disrupting Russian military logistics and transport routes into occupied Crimea.
Jun 8 2026
Ukraine Recaptures Over 600 Square Kilometers of Territory in 2026
Ukraine's top military commander reported significant territorial gains in 2026, though these successes were concentrated in the south and southeast mainland rather than Crimea.
Jun 6 2026
Luhansk Occupation Officials Ban Commercial Transport on Key Highway to Crimea
December 31 rises to 16%2%
Due to intensifying Ukrainian mid-range strikes, occupation authorities restricted commercial passenger vehicles from using the M-14 Rostov-Crimea highway.
May 30 2026
Ukraine Strikes Marine Oil Terminal in Occupied Feodosia
December 31 jumps to 24%13%
Ukrainian forces targeted critical fuel infrastructure in Crimea, damaging multiple oil tanks and exacerbating localized gasoline shortages on the peninsula.
May 28 2026
Ukrainian drone campaign limits Russian logistics
December 31 plunges to 11%40%
ISW reported that Ukrainian mid-range and frontline drone attacks were degrading Russia's ability to transport personnel and supplies to frontline positions, including key ground lines of communication connecting Russia to occupied Crimea.
May 27 2026
Ukrainian Defense Minister announces logistics lockdown
December 31 rises to 54%3%
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a 'logistics lockdown' to scale up middle-range drone strikes against Russian supply lines, signaling a strategic shift in Ukraine's offensive posture.
May 27 2026
Ukraine Launches 'Logistics Lockdown' to Disrupt Russian Supply Lines to Crimea
December 31 plunges to 8%43%
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a coordinated campaign targeting Russian ground lines of communication, including the M-14 highway connecting Russia to occupied Crimea.
May 26 2026
ISW report shows Russia's territorial net loss in Ukraine
December 31 rises to 54%3%
ISW reported that Russian forces recorded a net loss of 100 square miles of Ukrainian territory in April-May 2026, marking a significant reversal in the territorial control dynamics.
Mar 30 2026
Ukrainian forces destroy multiple Russian MLRS systems in occupied Crimea
On March 30, Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces confirmed destruction of three Russian multiple launch rocket systems in Crimea, continuing Ukraine's long-range strike campaign. Despite these attacks, no ground territorial gains in Crimea were reported, keeping market price low.
Mar 21 2026
Russia to deploy mobilized personnel from Crimea to Ukraine frontlines starting April 1
A Ukrainian official stated Russia will begin using mobilized personnel currently in Crimea in combat operations in Ukraine starting April 1, indicating Russian efforts to reinforce Crimea defenses. This suggested Ukraine faces challenges in recapturing Crimea soon, limiting market price increases.
Mar 18 2026
ISW reports Ukrainian forces liberated 33 sq miles of territory in Feb-Mar 2026
ISW data showed Ukrainian forces liberated 33 square miles of territory between February 17 and March 17, 2026, marking continued but limited gains in Ukraine-controlled areas. No territorial gains in Crimea were reported, maintaining low market confidence for Crimea recapture by June 30.
Mar 2 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky reports 460 sq km regained since start of 2026
June 30 rises to 5%2%
President Zelensky stated Ukrainian forces have regained about 460 square kilometers since the start of 2026, reflecting ongoing Ukrainian advances in southern and eastern Ukraine but not in Crimea. This modest progress raised some market optimism but did not affect Crimea control probabilities.
On February 27, Ukrainian forces conducted a long-range strike on the Yevpatoriya Aviation Plant in occupied Crimea, targeting Russian drones. This demonstrated Ukraine's capability to strike deep into Crimea but did not indicate any ground territorial gains there, keeping the market price low.
Jan 27 2026
Ukrainian strikes hit radar station in occupied Crimea
June 30 rises to 4%1%
The Ukrainian General Staff reported strikes on a radar station in Crimea and other targets, continuing Ukraine's campaign of attacks on Russian military assets in Crimea but with no territorial changes, keeping market prices low.
Jan 20 2026
Ukrainian forces continue strikes on Russian military targets in Crimea
June 30 rises to 7%1%
On January 19-20, Ukrainian forces maintained their drone and missile strikes against Russian military infrastructure in Crimea, sustaining military pressure but without any reported territorial gains, causing minor market fluctuations.
Jan 7 2026
Ukrainian forces conduct drone strike on Russian fuel depot in occupied Crimea
June 30 rises to 8%4%
Between January 2 and 7, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian fuel and lubricants warehouse near Sorokyne and continued mid-range strikes on military targets in Crimea, signaling ongoing pressure but no territorial recapture in Crimea, reflected in a slight price increase.
Jan 6 2026
Explosions and Air Defense Operations Reported Across Occupied Crimea
June 30 jumps to 10%5%
A series of drone attacks and explosions targeted key Russian military installations in Crimea, including the Saky airfield, keeping pressure on Russian forces and contributing to a temporary price spike.
Jan 1 2026
Drone attacks target multiple locations in occupied Crimea
June 30 rises to 4%1%
On New Year's night, Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on military targets across Crimea, including Saky airfield, Simferopol, Sevastopol, and Kerch. These attacks demonstrated Ukraine's capability to strike deep into occupied Crimea but did not result in territorial gains, keeping market confidence low.
Jan 1 2026
DeepState Reports Crimea Remains 100% Occupied as Russia Seizes Over 4,000 Square Kilometers in 2025
A year-end analysis by DeepState highlighted that despite Ukrainian strike efforts, Crimea remained fully occupied by Russia, underscoring the immense difficulty of any near-term recapture.
Dec 31 2025
Ukrainian Forces Escalate Mid-Range Strikes on Russian Energy and Military Assets in Crimea
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces significantly escalated strikes on Russian military and energy assets in occupied territories, including Crimea, on December 30 and 31.
Dec 26 2025
Ukrainian Intelligence Reports Successful Strikes on Russian Air Defense Systems in Crimea
Ukraine's GUR reported successful strikes on multiple high-value Russian targets in Crimea, including S-300V and Buk-M3 air defense components, degrading Russian defensive capabilities on the peninsula.
Dec 24 2025
Ukraine Launches Long-Range Strikes Against Russian Military Infrastructure in Occupied Crimea
June 30 rises to 4%1%
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of long-range strikes targeting Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea on the night of December 23 to 24, demonstrating continued capability to strike deep behind the frontlines.
Dec 14 2025
Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian fuel train and oil depots in Crimea
June 30 dips to 3%1%
On December 14, 2025, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces published footage of drone strikes on a Russian fuel train and oil depots in Crimea, causing fires and power outages. While these strikes degraded Russian military logistics, they did not result in Ukrainian territorial control in Crimea, maintaining the market's low probability for recapture.
Dec 8 2025
Ukrainian forces conduct drone strikes on military and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea
June 30 dips to 4%2%
On December 8-9, 2025, Ukrainian forces targeted occupied Crimea with drone strikes against military and energy infrastructure, causing fires and disruptions but no territorial gains. These attacks demonstrated Ukraine's capability to strike Crimea but did not translate into control of territory, keeping market expectations low.
Nov 20 2025
US officials develop peace plan recognizing Crimea as de facto Russian territory
On November 20, 2025, US officials confirmed working on a peace plan that would recognize Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto Russian territory, including by the US. This diplomatic development signaled low likelihood of Ukrainian recapture of Crimea by mid-2026, contributing to market price decline.
Oct 28 2025
Russian forces advance in southern Pokrovsk and northeastern Myrnohrad, no Crimea gains
June 30 rises to 12%4%
In late October 2025, Russian forces made slow advances in eastern Ukraine near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, while Ukrainian forces faced challenges defending these areas. There were no reports or ISW map indications of Ukrainian territorial gains in Crimea, keeping market expectations for Crimea recapture low.
Oct 17 2025
Russian air defenses mistakenly shoot down own fighter jet over occupied Crimea
On October 17, 2025, Russian air defenses shot down their own Su-30SM fighter jet over occupied Crimea, highlighting ongoing military activity but no Ukrainian territorial gains in Crimea. This incident underscored the contested and militarized nature of Crimea but did not indicate any Ukrainian recapture, maintaining low market confidence.
Oct 13 2025
Ukrainian forces strike Feodosia Offshore Oil Terminal in Crimea causing large fire
June 30 dips to 8%1%
On October 13, Ukrainian forces struck the Feodosia Offshore Oil Terminal in occupied Crimea, damaging fuel tanks and causing a large-scale fire. While this demonstrated Ukraine's ability to conduct impactful strikes inside Crimea, it did not involve ground territorial gains, thus not improving the market's outlook for recapture by June 30.
Oct 2 2025
Ukrainian Special Ops neutralize Russian S-400 radar station in Crimea
On October 2, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces targeted and neutralized the radar station of Russia’s S-400 air defense system in Crimea, degrading Russian air defense capabilities. This strike was significant militarily but did not translate into Ukrainian territorial gains in Crimea, maintaining low market confidence in recapture by June 30.
Sep 24 2025
Ukrainian drone strikes cause explosions near Russian military airfields in Crimea
June 30 drops to 8%12%
On September 24, Ukrainian drones struck near Belbek and Kacha airfields in occupied Crimea, causing explosions and damage to Russian military aircraft. Despite these attacks, no Ukrainian ground forces captured territory in Crimea, limiting the impact on the market's outlook for territorial recapture.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "December 31" con 8%, seguido de "30 de junio" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 8¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 8% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?" ha generado $990.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Sep 23, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?" es "December 31" con solo 8%, con "30 de junio" muy cerca con 0%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $990.7K operados en “¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 8¢ para "December 31" en el mercado "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 8% de que "December 31" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 8¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 92¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Dec 31, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 32 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea el...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes