Ukraine's resolute rejection of territorial concessions in Donbas, enshrined in its constitution and reiterated by President Zelenskyy in recent Geneva talks, drives the strong trader consensus against Kyiv agreeing to cede the remaining areas before 2027. Despite US-mediated negotiations stalling over Donbas ownership—with reports of American security guarantees linked to withdrawals, denied by Senator Rubio—and Kremlin demands for full control, Zelenskyy affirmed no voluntary handover as late as February 2026. German Chancellor Merz's April 27 suggestion of ceding land for EU accession faced immediate pushback, while ongoing Russian offensives in Donetsk yield slow gains but no diplomatic breakthrough. Intelligence chief Budanov's April stance—"we are not giving anything away"—underscores national red lines amid frozen front lines and slim prospects for compromise within the timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Estará Ucrania de acuerdo en renunciar al resto del Donbás antes de 2027?
¿Estará Ucrania de acuerdo en renunciar al resto del Donbás antes de 2027?
Sí
$67,509 Vol.
$67,509 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$67,509 Vol.
$67,509 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine's resolute rejection of territorial concessions in Donbas, enshrined in its constitution and reiterated by President Zelenskyy in recent Geneva talks, drives the strong trader consensus against Kyiv agreeing to cede the remaining areas before 2027. Despite US-mediated negotiations stalling over Donbas ownership—with reports of American security guarantees linked to withdrawals, denied by Senator Rubio—and Kremlin demands for full control, Zelenskyy affirmed no voluntary handover as late as February 2026. German Chancellor Merz's April 27 suggestion of ceding land for EU accession faced immediate pushback, while ongoing Russian offensives in Donetsk yield slow gains but no diplomatic breakthrough. Intelligence chief Budanov's April stance—"we are not giving anything away"—underscores national red lines amid frozen front lines and slim prospects for compromise within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
Volumen
$67,509Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine's resolute rejection of territorial concessions in Donbas, enshrined in its constitution and reiterated by President Zelenskyy in recent Geneva talks, drives the strong trader consensus against Kyiv agreeing to cede the remaining areas before 2027. Despite US-mediated negotiations stalling over Donbas ownership—with reports of American security guarantees linked to withdrawals, denied by Senator Rubio—and Kremlin demands for full control, Zelenskyy affirmed no voluntary handover as late as February 2026. German Chancellor Merz's April 27 suggestion of ceding land for EU accession faced immediate pushback, while ongoing Russian offensives in Donetsk yield slow gains but no diplomatic breakthrough. Intelligence chief Budanov's April stance—"we are not giving anything away"—underscores national red lines amid frozen front lines and slim prospects for compromise within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$67,509Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's resolute rejection of territorial concessions in Donbas, enshrined in its constitution and reiterated by President Zelenskyy in recent Geneva talks, drives the strong trader consensus against Kyiv agreeing to cede the remaining areas before 2027. Despite US-mediated negotiations stalling over Donbas ownership—with reports of American security guarantees linked to withdrawals, denied by Senator Rubio—and Kremlin demands for full control, Zelenskyy affirmed no voluntary handover as late as February 2026. German Chancellor Merz's April 27 suggestion of ceding land for EU accession faced immediate pushback, while ongoing Russian offensives in Donetsk yield slow gains but no diplomatic breakthrough. Intelligence chief Budanov's April stance—"we are not giving anything away"—underscores national red lines amid frozen front lines and slim prospects for compromise within the timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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