Russian forces have conducted repeated strikes, drone operations, and limited infiltration attempts near Malokaterynivka, a frontline village northwest of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, without confirmed territorial gains into the settlement itself as of mid-2026. Ukrainian units have countered with local advances around Orikhiv and the village in spring 2026, while broader Russian efforts along the Hulyaipole axis remain stalled amid intensified Ukrainian drone and artillery activity. Trader assessments reflect the slow pace of Russian southern operations, Ukrainian recapture of hundreds of square kilometers elsewhere this year, and the concentration of Russian resources on Donetsk axes such as Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Scheduled or ongoing factors include continued FPV drone strikes, artillery exchanges, and any shifts in manpower or Western aid that could alter momentum along this secondary front.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$38,237 Vol.
December 31
16%
$38,237 Vol.
December 31
16%
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Malokaterynivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: May 27, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Territory will be considered captured if any part of Malokaterynivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted repeated strikes, drone operations, and limited infiltration attempts near Malokaterynivka, a frontline village northwest of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, without confirmed territorial gains into the settlement itself as of mid-2026. Ukrainian units have countered with local advances around Orikhiv and the village in spring 2026, while broader Russian efforts along the Hulyaipole axis remain stalled amid intensified Ukrainian drone and artillery activity. Trader assessments reflect the slow pace of Russian southern operations, Ukrainian recapture of hundreds of square kilometers elsewhere this year, and the concentration of Russian resources on Donetsk axes such as Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Scheduled or ongoing factors include continued FPV drone strikes, artillery exchanges, and any shifts in manpower or Western aid that could alter momentum along this secondary front.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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