John Fleming’s advancement to the June 27 runoff in Louisiana’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, after placing second in the May vote and eliminating incumbent Bill Cassidy, underpins the 84% trader consensus that he will remain on the ballot. Despite President Trump’s endorsement of rival Julia Letlow and multiple reported offers of administration positions in exchange for withdrawal, Fleming has repeatedly declined, highlighted his self-funded campaign and grassroots support, released internal polling indicating competitiveness, and issued public debate challenges. These sustained actions through late May and early June, combined with no subsequent announcements of exit or major setbacks, have reinforced expectations that he will contest the runoff. The market resolution window closes June 26.