Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA mobilization indicators such as amphibious assault preparations or large-scale Taiwan Strait blockades in recent weeks. This aligns with the U.S. ODNI's March 18, 2026, Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded China prefers unification without force and lacks a fixed invasion timeline, even for 2027, amid ongoing routine military drills but no escalation signals. Recent developments, including China's April resumption of limited ties with Taiwan after an opposition leader's visit and President Lai's canceled Eswatini trip on April 21, show managed tensions rather than crisis buildup. Structural barriers—logistical challenges of a cross-strait amphibious operation, U.S. deterrence via Indo-Pacific alliances, and economic interdependence—bolster high confidence, though abrupt provocations like airspace incursions or diplomatic ruptures could shift odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$7,591,558 Vol.
$7,591,558 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$7,591,558 Vol.
$7,591,558 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA mobilization indicators such as amphibious assault preparations or large-scale Taiwan Strait blockades in recent weeks. This aligns with the U.S. ODNI's March 18, 2026, Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded China prefers unification without force and lacks a fixed invasion timeline, even for 2027, amid ongoing routine military drills but no escalation signals. Recent developments, including China's April resumption of limited ties with Taiwan after an opposition leader's visit and President Lai's canceled Eswatini trip on April 21, show managed tensions rather than crisis buildup. Structural barriers—logistical challenges of a cross-strait amphibious operation, U.S. deterrence via Indo-Pacific alliances, and economic interdependence—bolster high confidence, though abrupt provocations like airspace incursions or diplomatic ruptures could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$7,591,558Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA mobilization indicators such as amphibious assault preparations or large-scale Taiwan Strait blockades in recent weeks. This aligns with the U.S. ODNI's March 18, 2026, Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded China prefers unification without force and lacks a fixed invasion timeline, even for 2027, amid ongoing routine military drills but no escalation signals. Recent developments, including China's April resumption of limited ties with Taiwan after an opposition leader's visit and President Lai's canceled Eswatini trip on April 21, show managed tensions rather than crisis buildup. Structural barriers—logistical challenges of a cross-strait amphibious operation, U.S. deterrence via Indo-Pacific alliances, and economic interdependence—bolster high confidence, though abrupt provocations like airspace incursions or diplomatic ruptures could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$7,591,558Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA mobilization indicators such as amphibious assault preparations or large-scale Taiwan Strait blockades in recent weeks. This aligns with the U.S. ODNI's March 18, 2026, Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded China prefers unification without force and lacks a fixed invasion timeline, even for 2027, amid ongoing routine military drills but no escalation signals. Recent developments, including China's April resumption of limited ties with Taiwan after an opposition leader's visit and President Lai's canceled Eswatini trip on April 21, show managed tensions rather than crisis buildup. Structural barriers—logistical challenges of a cross-strait amphibious operation, U.S. deterrence via Indo-Pacific alliances, and economic interdependence—bolster high confidence, though abrupt provocations like airspace incursions or diplomatic ruptures could shift odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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