Traders assign a 99.6% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the extremely short remaining window and the absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations, troop concentrations, or logistical movements required for such an operation. Recent months have featured continued gray-zone pressure, including 217 Chinese aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ in May and repeated China Coast Guard entries near Kinmen and Pratas islands, yet these remain coercive tactics short of kinetic conflict. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 explicitly state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for military action and are prioritizing condition-setting over immediate invasion. With only weeks left before resolution, any sudden shift would require an unprecedented, undetected escalation that historical patterns and current reporting make improbable, though an unforeseen incident or miscalculation could still test the consensus in the final days.