US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and currently see no invasion plan for 2027, favoring coercive measures short of war instead. With only weeks remaining until the June 30, 2026, resolution date, traders assign near-certain weight to the absence of observable indicators for a full-scale amphibious operation, such as large-scale troop concentrations, naval task force assembly, or airlift preparations in the Taiwan Strait. Ongoing People’s Liberation Army activities remain limited to normalized air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and response drills tied to regional exercises, consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict. A sudden trigger event could theoretically compress decision timelines, though structural barriers including logistics and risk of US intervention make rapid escalation before the cutoff improbable.