Alberta separatists' citizen-initiated petition surpassing the 177,000-signature threshold on March 31, 2026, has driven trader consensus to a 57.5% implied probability for a province scheduling a secession referendum before 2027, fueled by Premier Danielle Smith's 2025 pledge to hold one if verified and her government's lowered barriers under the Citizen Initiative Act. The province's October 19 referendum on nine sovereignty-enhancing questions, including constitutional amendments for greater autonomy, provides a potential framework, though none directly address independence. Uncertainty persists amid Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation's court challenge alleging treaty violations—ruling due May 2—and counter-petitions like "Forever Canadian," with polls showing only 29-33% Albertan support for separation despite federal equalization and energy policy grievances. Quebec's Parti Québécois post-election referendum pledge adds minor tail risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$378,839 Vol.
$378,839 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$378,839 Vol.
$378,839 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists' citizen-initiated petition surpassing the 177,000-signature threshold on March 31, 2026, has driven trader consensus to a 57.5% implied probability for a province scheduling a secession referendum before 2027, fueled by Premier Danielle Smith's 2025 pledge to hold one if verified and her government's lowered barriers under the Citizen Initiative Act. The province's October 19 referendum on nine sovereignty-enhancing questions, including constitutional amendments for greater autonomy, provides a potential framework, though none directly address independence. Uncertainty persists amid Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation's court challenge alleging treaty violations—ruling due May 2—and counter-petitions like "Forever Canadian," with polls showing only 29-33% Albertan support for separation despite federal equalization and energy policy grievances. Quebec's Parti Québécois post-election referendum pledge adds minor tail risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$378,839Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists' citizen-initiated petition surpassing the 177,000-signature threshold on March 31, 2026, has driven trader consensus to a 57.5% implied probability for a province scheduling a secession referendum before 2027, fueled by Premier Danielle Smith's 2025 pledge to hold one if verified and her government's lowered barriers under the Citizen Initiative Act. The province's October 19 referendum on nine sovereignty-enhancing questions, including constitutional amendments for greater autonomy, provides a potential framework, though none directly address independence. Uncertainty persists amid Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation's court challenge alleging treaty violations—ruling due May 2—and counter-petitions like "Forever Canadian," with polls showing only 29-33% Albertan support for separation despite federal equalization and energy policy grievances. Quebec's Parti Québécois post-election referendum pledge adds minor tail risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$378,839Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alberta separatists' citizen-initiated petition surpassing the 177,000-signature threshold on March 31, 2026, has driven trader consensus to a 57.5% implied probability for a province scheduling a secession referendum before 2027, fueled by Premier Danielle Smith's 2025 pledge to hold one if verified and her government's lowered barriers under the Citizen Initiative Act. The province's October 19 referendum on nine sovereignty-enhancing questions, including constitutional amendments for greater autonomy, provides a potential framework, though none directly address independence. Uncertainty persists amid Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation's court challenge alleging treaty violations—ruling due May 2—and counter-petitions like "Forever Canadian," with polls showing only 29-33% Albertan support for separation despite federal equalization and energy policy grievances. Quebec's Parti Québécois post-election referendum pledge adds minor tail risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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