Conservative Party members overwhelmingly endorsed Pierre Poilievre's leadership in January 2026 with 87.4% support during the mandatory post-election review at the Calgary convention, following the party's defeat to Mark Carney's Liberals in the April 2025 federal election. Despite some Conservative MPs crossing the floor and by-election losses that bolstered the Liberal minority toward a majority, Poilievre retains strong internal backing, as affirmed by public endorsements from caucus colleagues in mid-April. His recent House of Commons critiques of the Liberal spring economic update, including a projected $65 billion deficit, underscore his active role as Official Opposition leader. With no active leadership challenges or snap election signals, traders price an 77.5% implied probability he remains in place through December 31, 2026, reflecting party stability amid uncertain polls.