Gabbard publicly criticizes “Deep State warmongers” for undermining Trump’s Ukraine peace talks, reinforcing her alignment with Trump’s agenda but also deepening divisions within

Tulsi Gabbard drops to 59%5%

Gabbard publicly criticizes “Deep State warmongers” for undermining Trump’s Ukraine peace talks, reinforcing her alignment with Trump’s agenda but also deepening divisions within the intelligence community

The Guardian records Senate Minority Leader Schumer again demanding Patel’s resignation following Labor Secretary Lori Chavez‑DeRemer’s exit, pushing the

Kash Patel rises to 85%3%

The Guardian records Senate Minority Leader Schumer again demanding Patel’s resignation following Labor Secretary Lori Chavez‑DeRemer’s exit, pushing the

Reports confirm Zeldin’s strong standing in the administration despite cabinet shakeups, highlighting his effectiveness and loyalty

Lee Zeldin jumps to 47%8%

This reinforced market belief in Zeldin’s continued role in the administration, either at EPA or potentially elevated to Attorney General.

Raw Story reports Hegseth was passed over for a Ukraine delegation, fueling rumors of his marginalisation and nudging odds back down

Pete Hegseth drops to 37%9%

Raw Story reports Hegseth was passed over for a Ukraine delegation, fueling rumors of his marginalisation and nudging odds back down

Gabbard’s tenure marked by aggressive restructuring of the intelligence community, including staff cuts and dismissals over alleged misconduct, alongside accusations of

Tulsi Gabbard surges to 75%19%

Gabbard’s tenure marked by aggressive restructuring of the intelligence community, including staff cuts and dismissals over alleged misconduct, alongside accusations of politicization and controversy, fueling speculation about her future

Financial Express notes a 115‑page internal FBI report describing the bureau as “paralyzed by fear” under Patel and cites ongoing discussions of his removal

Kash Patel rises to 82%4%

Financial Express notes a 115‑page internal FBI report describing the bureau as “paralyzed by fear” under Patel and cites ongoing discussions of his removal

Hegseth announces a review of the SBA 8(a) contracting program, signaling a new policy focus and briefly boosting “Yes” odds to a peak

Pete Hegseth surges to 61%21%

Hegseth announces a review of the SBA 8(a) contracting program, signaling a new policy focus and briefly boosting “Yes” odds to a peak

Leavitt shares a Breitbart article touting the Trump administration's military success in the Iran war, drawing mixed reactions and criticism for the timing and content of the

Karoline Leavitt rises to 44%4%

Leavitt shares a Breitbart article touting the Trump administration's military success in the Iran war, drawing mixed reactions and criticism for the timing and content of the message.

The Hill reports Rep. Ted Lieu stating “Kash Patel is next” after recent cabinet exits, amplifying market optimism that Patel will leave

Kash Patel surges to 78%15%

The Hill reports Rep. Ted Lieu stating “Kash Patel is next” after recent cabinet exits, amplifying market optimism that Patel will leave

President Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi and names Todd Blanche as Acting Attorney General; Lee Zeldin emerges as the leading candidate for permanent replacement

Lee Zeldin rises to 47%4%

Bondi’s removal and Zeldin’s consideration for Attorney General sharply increased market expectations that Zeldin would leave the EPA before 2027.

Leavitt publicly expresses concerns about Israeli restrictions on access to holy sites during Holy Week, showing her involvement in sensitive foreign policy communications.

Karoline Leavitt rises to 40%2%

Leavitt publicly expresses concerns about Israeli restrictions on access to holy sites during Holy Week, showing her involvement in sensitive foreign policy communications.

A Reuters piece notes that Patel was replaced as acting ATF chief by Daniel P.

Kash Patel surges to 63%30%

Driscoll in April 2025, and that he is no longer at the FBI, fueling doubts about his tenure and spurring a 30‑point

Gabbard announces plans to declassify documents related to Trump’s first impeachment and the 2016 Russia narrative, escalating political controversy and spotlighting her as a key

Tulsi Gabbard jumps to 65%11%

Gabbard announces plans to declassify documents related to Trump’s first impeachment and the 2016 Russia narrative, escalating political controversy and spotlighting her as a key figure in Trump’s efforts to reshape intelligence narratives

Reports reveal Noem’s new envoy role is a demotion with reduced authority

Kristi Noem drops to 57%6%

Revelations that Noem’s new position was created to sideline her politically led to market reassessment of her future in the administration.

Senate confirms Markwayne Mullin as new DHS Secretary

Kristi Noem drops to 63%6%

Mullin’s confirmation finalized Noem’s removal from DHS, slightly reducing uncertainty but confirming her departure from the cabinet role.

Leavitt attends a high-profile baby shower at Trump's golf club, signaling her continued prominence and personal milestones within the administration.

Karoline Leavitt jumps to 44%8%

Leavitt attends a high-profile baby shower at Trump's golf club, signaling her continued prominence and personal milestones within the administration.

Politico notes Hegseth’s move to scrap the Women, Peace and Security program, intensifying criticism and pushing odds higher

Pete Hegseth surges to 45%15%

Politico notes Hegseth’s move to scrap the Women, Peace and Security program, intensifying criticism and pushing odds higher

Reuters reports Hegseth’s fiery Quantico speech demanding “fat generals” resign, reviving talk of a purge and lifting odds

Pete Hegseth rises to 30%3%

Reuters reports Hegseth’s fiery Quantico speech demanding “fat generals” resign, reviving talk of a purge and lifting odds

President Trump announces firing of Kristi Noem as DHS Secretary, appoints Markwayne Mullin as replacement

Kristi Noem jumps to 69%10%

Trump publicly fired Noem and reassigned her as Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas, confirming her exit from DHS and driving a sharp

Noem testifies before Senate Judiciary Committee amid mounting criticism

Kristi Noem jumps to 59%14%

Her contentious congressional hearings intensified scrutiny but also raised speculation about her imminent departure, causing

House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer states it is "very possible" Lutnick will be subpoenaed over Epstein probe

Howard Lutnick jumps to 39%6%

Public statements about possible congressional deposition intensified pressure on Lutnick, raising likelihood of departure.

POLITICO reports internal tensions and high turnover at Commerce Department under Lutnick's leadership

Howard Lutnick jumps to 39%9%

Reports of management issues and alienation within Commerce increased speculation about Lutnick's potential exit.

Leavitt reveals Trump's strategy during the State of the Union address to politically trap Democrats on immigration issues, highlighting her active role in messaging key

Karoline Leavitt rises to 45%2%

Leavitt reveals Trump's strategy during the State of the Union address to politically trap Democrats on immigration issues, highlighting her active role in messaging key administration policies.

New York Times reports Lutnick met with a billionaire bridge owner hours before Trump blocked a U.S.-Canada bridge opening

Howard Lutnick jumps to 40%6%

This meeting raised questions about Lutnick's influence and possible controversies, contributing to market uncertainty.

Politico reports a senior White House official telling reporter Dasha Burns that Patel’s departure is “only a matter of time,” reigniting expectations of a firing

Kash Patel surges to 59%18%

Politico reports a senior White House official telling reporter Dasha Burns that Patel’s departure is “only a matter of time,” reigniting expectations of a firing

Gabbard confirms Trump requested her presence at the Fulton County FBI raid and facilitated a call from Trump to FBI agents, intensifying scrutiny and debate over her involvement

Tulsi Gabbard jumps to 56%8%

Gabbard confirms Trump requested her presence at the Fulton County FBI raid and facilitated a call from Trump to FBI agents, intensifying scrutiny and debate over her involvement in domestic political matters

NBC News confirms Hegseth halted offensive cyber operations against Russia, prompting backlash and a rise in “Yes” odds

Pete Hegseth dips to 22%2%

NBC News confirms Hegseth halted offensive cyber operations against Russia, prompting backlash and a rise in “Yes” odds

Speculation grows about Zeldin as a potential replacement for Attorney General Pam Bondi amid DOJ controversies

Lee Zeldin rises to 43%3%

Rumors about a cabinet reshuffle involving Zeldin raised the probability of his leaving the EPA, pushing the market

Gabbard accompanies FBI agents during a controversial raid on an election center in Fulton County, Georgia, at Trump’s request, raising questions about her role and jurisdiction,

Tulsi Gabbard jumps to 48%8%

Gabbard accompanies FBI agents during a controversial raid on an election center in Fulton County, Georgia, at Trump’s request, raising questions about her role and jurisdiction, and sparking political backlash

Leavitt publicly supports Trump's call for Minnesota officials to cooperate with ICE amid immigration enforcement tensions, reinforcing her role as a staunch administration

Karoline Leavitt jumps to 50%11%

Leavitt publicly supports Trump's call for Minnesota officials to cooperate with ICE amid immigration enforcement tensions, reinforcing her role as a staunch administration defender.

Leavitt defends President Trump's controversial speech at the World Economic Forum, receiving harsh criticism and being labeled a "clown" by detractors, which may have affected

Karoline Leavitt dips to 39%2%

Leavitt defends President Trump's controversial speech at the World Economic Forum, receiving harsh criticism and being labeled a "clown" by detractors, which may have affected market confidence.

Howard Lutnick admits visiting Jeffrey Epstein's private island with family, contradicting earlier statements

Howard Lutnick jumps to 35%6%

Admission of visiting Epstein's island amid conflicting statements triggered calls for resignation and congressional scrutiny, pushing

Reports reveal Gabbard was deliberately excluded from key planning meetings for the U.S.

Tulsi Gabbard drops to 27%13%

military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro due to her past non-interventionist views, signaling internal sidelining and reducing market confidence

Senator Chuck Schumer calls for Patel’s immediate resignation, labeling his behavior “a national security risk,” which pushes the market higher

Kash Patel plunges to 52%22%

Senator Chuck Schumer calls for Patel’s immediate resignation, labeling his behavior “a national security risk,” which pushes the market higher

Hegseth orders a controversial “double‑tap” strike on a Caribbean drug boat, igniting war‑crime accusations and sending “Yes” odds sharply upward

Pete Hegseth jumps to 47%8%

Hegseth orders a controversial “double‑tap” strike on a Caribbean drug boat, igniting war‑crime accusations and sending “Yes” odds sharply upward

Vanity Fair publishes a close-up photo of Leavitt showing apparent cosmetic filler marks, sparking social media backlash and scrutiny of her personal conduct while serving as

Karoline Leavitt surges to 57%21%

Vanity Fair publishes a close-up photo of Leavitt showing apparent cosmetic filler marks, sparking social media backlash and scrutiny of her personal conduct while serving as press secretary.

Trump publicly denies the firing rumor on X, saying the story is “completely made up,” but the denial is followed by a surge in speculation that the president is “laughing” about

Kash Patel jumps to 74%9%

Trump publicly denies the firing rumor on X, saying the story is “completely made up,” but the denial is followed by a surge in speculation that the president is “laughing” about Patel’s situation

Hegseth vows “ruthless” retaliation after a deadly ambush in Syria, drawing criticism and nudging odds higher

Pete Hegseth dips to 39%4%

Hegseth vows “ruthless” retaliation after a deadly ambush in Syria, drawing criticism and nudging odds higher

The Atlantic publishes a story alleging Patel’s “excessive drinking” and “unexplained absences,” prompting Patel to file a $250 million lawsuit against the outlet

Kash Patel surges to 65%21%

The Atlantic publishes a story alleging Patel’s “excessive drinking” and “unexplained absences,” prompting Patel to file a $250 million lawsuit against the outlet

Washington Post reports Hegseth will replace the first female superintendent of the Naval Academy, fueling speculation of a broader purge and lifting “Yes” odds

Pete Hegseth drops to 43%14%

Washington Post reports Hegseth will replace the first female superintendent of the Naval Academy, fueling speculation of a broader purge and lifting “Yes” odds

Critical article published labeling Karoline Leavitt as an inadequate and unprofessional political figure, highlighting her confrontational style and raising doubts about her

Karoline Leavitt drops to 41%13%

Critical article published labeling Karoline Leavitt as an inadequate and unprofessional political figure, highlighting her confrontational style and raising doubts about her future in the administration.

Hegseth’s “SSecretary” typo on his name‑plate at a Cabinet meeting goes viral, raising doubts about his competence and pushing “Yes” odds up

Pete Hegseth surges to 57%19%

Hegseth’s “SSecretary” typo on his name‑plate at a Cabinet meeting goes viral, raising doubts about his competence and pushing “Yes” odds up

The New York Times reveals Lutnick as a major donor and co-chair of Trump's transition team

Howard Lutnick rises to 41%2%

Disclosure of Lutnick's deep ties to Trump and transition leadership added complexity to his tenure prospects.

Report that White House sources say Trump is weighing firing FBI Director Kash Patel amid criticism of his “girlfriend’s security detail and use of a government jet”

Kash Patel surges to 52%31%

Report that White House sources say Trump is weighing firing FBI Director Kash Patel amid criticism of his “girlfriend’s security detail and use of a government jet”

The New York Times reports on Lutnick's family profiting from AI projects linked to his government role

Howard Lutnick rises to 39%4%

Investigative reporting on potential conflicts of interest raised concerns about Lutnick's ethics, increasing perceived risk of departure.

Trump officially names Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, sparking an immediate drop in “Yes” odds as his tenure looks secure

Pete Hegseth plunges to 30%20%

Trump officially names Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, sparking an immediate drop in “Yes” odds as his tenure looks secure

Bruna Ferreira, a DACA recipient and family member connected to Karoline Leavitt, is arrested by ICE agents, drawing national attention and raising questions about Leavitt's

Karoline Leavitt surges to 54%20%

Bruna Ferreira, a DACA recipient and family member connected to Karoline Leavitt, is arrested by ICE agents, drawing national attention and raising questions about Leavitt's position amid immigration enforcement controversies.

Arrest of major Mexican cartel leader Leonardo Daniel “El Pato” Martinez Vera credited by Gabbard to Trump’s leadership and intelligence efforts, highlighting her active role in

Tulsi Gabbard jumps to 34%8%

Arrest of major Mexican cartel leader Leonardo Daniel “El Pato” Martinez Vera credited by Gabbard to Trump’s leadership and intelligence efforts, highlighting her active role in administration operations and boosting confidence in her position

Reports emerge of Noem’s controversial management and spending decisions at DHS

Kristi Noem rises to 45%2%

Public scrutiny over Noem’s use of private jets and inspector general accusations of obstruction caused mixed market reactions.

Gabbard publicly contradicted Trump’s assessment of Iran’s nuclear threat, stating Iran was not building a nuclear weapon, causing friction with the president and raising doubts

Tulsi Gabbard surges to 51%24%

Gabbard publicly contradicted Trump’s assessment of Iran’s nuclear threat, stating Iran was not building a nuclear weapon, causing friction with the president and raising doubts about her standing in the administration

Incident at DHS press conference where Senator Alex Padilla was forcibly removed

Kristi Noem drops to 48%7%

Noem failed to recognize Senator Padilla, who was then handcuffed and removed by agents, sparking controversy and negative attention on her leadership.

Lee Zeldin publicly involved in Trump’s campaign efforts and administration initiatives, reinforcing his loyalty and stability

Lee Zeldin rises to 40%3%

His visible support for Trump and active role in administration policies increased market confidence in his continued presence.

Noem’s purse stolen in D.C., raising security concerns

Kristi Noem dips to 55%2%

The theft of Noem’s purse containing sensitive items raised questions about her security detail and management, causing some market uncertainty.

Senate confirms Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce in a 51–45 vote

Howard Lutnick rises to 25%2%

The official confirmation and swearing-in solidified Lutnick's position, causing a modest

Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by Senate in a narrow 52-48 vote, marking her official entry into the Trump administration and raising questions about

Tulsi Gabbard surges to 46%25%

Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by Senate in a narrow 52-48 vote, marking her official entry into the Trump administration and raising questions about her future role and stability in the position

President Trump finalizes repeal of the EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding under Zeldin’s leadership

Lee Zeldin surges to 48%35%

This major deregulatory action under Zeldin’s EPA leadership boosted his profile and market confidence in his active role in the administration.

Howard Lutnick testifies before Senate Commerce Committee promoting tariffs and trade policies

Howard Lutnick jumps to 24%7%

Lutnick's Senate hearing highlighted his strong support for Trump's trade agenda, increasing market attention on his role and stability.

Lee Zeldin sworn in as the 17th Administrator of the EPA by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh

Lee Zeldin dips to 20%4%

His formal assumption of office confirmed his membership in the administration, but initial market uncertainty about his tenure caused a slight dip.

Senate confirms Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security

Kristi Noem jumps to 56%8%

Noem was confirmed by the Senate and sworn in, solidifying her position in the administration and increasing market confidence in her tenure.

Senate Environment and Public Works Committee holds confirmation hearing for Lee Zeldin as EPA Administrator

Lee Zeldin jumps to 24%6%

The hearing was a key step toward his confirmation, sustaining market interest in his official appointment.

Donald Trump announces Howard Lutnick as nominee for Secretary of Commerce

Howard Lutnick jumps to 28%7%

Trump's nomination of Lutnick, a prominent businessman, for Commerce Secretary sparked initial market interest in his potential departure.

Donald Trump names Karoline Leavitt as White House Press Secretary, making her the youngest ever to hold the position at age 27.

Karoline Leavitt rises to 24%3%

This historic appointment raised expectations and market interest in her tenure.

Donald Trump announces Kristi Noem as nominee for Secretary of Homeland Security

Kristi Noem dips to 49%1%

Trump selected Noem for the DHS role, signaling a strong immigration enforcement agenda, initiating market interest in her potential departure.

Lee Zeldin nominated by President Trump as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the second Trump administration

Lee Zeldin surges to 51%30%

This nomination marked Zeldin's entry into the Trump administration, significantly increasing market expectations that he would be part of the administration and thus potentially leave it before 2027.