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Geopolítica·Trump

¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Trump

¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

$263,476 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$263,476 Vol.

Polymarket

México

$1,799 Vol.

29%

Canadá

$2,407 Vol.

38%

Japón

$4,788 Vol.

27%

Corea del Sur

$54,485 Vol.

25%

India

$37,847 Vol.

22%

Taiwán

$31,644 Vol.

20%

Reino Unido

$419 Vol.

23%

Israel

$343 Vol.

19%

Pakistán

$71,371 Vol.

17%

Argentina

$19,939 Vol.

17%

Brasil

$3,077 Vol.

16%

Sudáfrica

$354 Vol.

15%

Vietnam

$5,090 Vol.

15%

Indonesia

$18,697 Vol.

14%

Rusia

$1,979 Vol.

14%

Unión Europea

$7,344 Vol.

13%

Australia

$1,893 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 53% chance of a new U.S. free trade agreement with Canada becoming law by December 31, 2026, amid escalating USMCA review tensions and reciprocal tariff threats reported in late April, with U.S. officials accusing Canada of violations and both sides in protracted negotiations since January 2025. Mexico follows at 38% and Japan at 34%, reflecting uncertainty over formal Senate ratification or congressional-executive approval for frameworks already announced with those nations and others like the United Kingdom (33%) and South Korea (26%), following over 20 bilateral pacts since Trump's 2025 inauguration. The looming 2026 USMCA joint review and ongoing tariff pressures on North American partners represent key catalysts that could formalize new terms before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$263,476
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 53% chance of a new U.S. free trade agreement with Canada becoming law by December 31, 2026, amid escalating USMCA review tensions and reciprocal tariff threats reported in late April, with U.S. officials accusing Canada of violations and both sides in protracted negotiations since January 2025. Mexico follows at 38% and Japan at 34%, reflecting uncertainty over formal Senate ratification or congressional-executive approval for frameworks already announced with those nations and others like the United Kingdom (33%) and South Korea (26%), following over 20 bilateral pacts since Trump's 2025 inauguration. The looming 2026 USMCA joint review and ongoing tariff pressures on North American partners represent key catalysts that could formalize new terms before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$263,476
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 17 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Canadá" con 38%, seguido de "México" con 29%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 38¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 38% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?" ha generado $263.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?", explora los 17 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?" es "Canadá" con 38%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 38% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "México" con 29%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Con qué países hará Trump nuevos acuerdos comerciales antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.