Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count for May 5-12 leans toward 500+ posts at 26% implied probability, reflecting his history of explosive social media surges during high-stakes events like the recent OpenAI trial testimony and Tesla Semi production rollout, where daily volumes spiked to 60-80 posts. However, the fragmented field—clustered around 200-300 (top bins at 11.5%)—mirrors last week's subdued pace of 158 posts (26/day average for April 24-May 1), amid quieter periods without viral controversies or platform announcements. Key differentiators include potential catalysts like SpaceX launches, political posts, or X algorithm tweaks, which could propel higher bins, versus lulls from travel or focus on Tesla earnings, underscoring the unpredictability of his posting rhythm driven by real-time cultural and business buzz.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado200-219 20%
220-239 20%
240-259 18%
260-279 18%
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
1%
80-99
3%
100-119
14%
120-139
14%
140-159
10%
160-179
10%
180-199
12%
200-219
19%
220-239
20%
240-259
13%
260-279
9%
280-299
9%
300-319
14%
320-339
14%
340-359
14%
360-379
4%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
4%
440-459
4%
460-479
4%
480-499
4%
500+
14%
200-219 20%
220-239 20%
240-259 18%
260-279 18%
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
1%
80-99
3%
100-119
14%
120-139
14%
140-159
10%
160-179
10%
180-199
12%
200-219
19%
220-239
20%
240-259
13%
260-279
9%
280-299
9%
300-319
14%
320-339
14%
340-359
14%
360-379
4%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
4%
440-459
4%
460-479
4%
480-499
4%
500+
14%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count for May 5-12 leans toward 500+ posts at 26% implied probability, reflecting his history of explosive social media surges during high-stakes events like the recent OpenAI trial testimony and Tesla Semi production rollout, where daily volumes spiked to 60-80 posts. However, the fragmented field—clustered around 200-300 (top bins at 11.5%)—mirrors last week's subdued pace of 158 posts (26/day average for April 24-May 1), amid quieter periods without viral controversies or platform announcements. Key differentiators include potential catalysts like SpaceX launches, political posts, or X algorithm tweaks, which could propel higher bins, versus lulls from travel or focus on Tesla earnings, underscoring the unpredictability of his posting rhythm driven by real-time cultural and business buzz.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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