Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 7% likelihood, driven by recent US intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding China is unlikely to invade Taiwan that year, amid steady but non-accelerating PLA modernization. Ongoing diplomacy, including the October 2025 Trump-Xi summit in Busan yielding a trade truce extended into 2026, has fostered de-escalation signals, with China describing its Taiwan Strait patrols as "reasonable" despite Taiwanese reports of increased naval activity in April. US munitions depletion from the Iran conflict further raises barriers to confrontation, while no major airstrikes, blockades, or territorial incursions have emerged in the past month to shift odds. Late-breaking diplomacy or Taiwan Strait incidents could still alter this outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y China antes de 2027?
¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y China antes de 2027?
Sí
$89,765 Vol.
$89,765 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$89,765 Vol.
$89,765 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 7% likelihood, driven by recent US intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding China is unlikely to invade Taiwan that year, amid steady but non-accelerating PLA modernization. Ongoing diplomacy, including the October 2025 Trump-Xi summit in Busan yielding a trade truce extended into 2026, has fostered de-escalation signals, with China describing its Taiwan Strait patrols as "reasonable" despite Taiwanese reports of increased naval activity in April. US munitions depletion from the Iran conflict further raises barriers to confrontation, while no major airstrikes, blockades, or territorial incursions have emerged in the past month to shift odds. Late-breaking diplomacy or Taiwan Strait incidents could still alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volumen
$89,765Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 7% likelihood, driven by recent US intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding China is unlikely to invade Taiwan that year, amid steady but non-accelerating PLA modernization. Ongoing diplomacy, including the October 2025 Trump-Xi summit in Busan yielding a trade truce extended into 2026, has fostered de-escalation signals, with China describing its Taiwan Strait patrols as "reasonable" despite Taiwanese reports of increased naval activity in April. US munitions depletion from the Iran conflict further raises barriers to confrontation, while no major airstrikes, blockades, or territorial incursions have emerged in the past month to shift odds. Late-breaking diplomacy or Taiwan Strait incidents could still alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$89,765Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 7% likelihood, driven by recent US intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding China is unlikely to invade Taiwan that year, amid steady but non-accelerating PLA modernization. Ongoing diplomacy, including the October 2025 Trump-Xi summit in Busan yielding a trade truce extended into 2026, has fostered de-escalation signals, with China describing its Taiwan Strait patrols as "reasonable" despite Taiwanese reports of increased naval activity in April. US munitions depletion from the Iran conflict further raises barriers to confrontation, while no major airstrikes, blockades, or territorial incursions have emerged in the past month to shift odds. Late-breaking diplomacy or Taiwan Strait incidents could still alter this outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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