Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026 (11%), driven by the three-decade moratorium intact since 1992 and reliance on stockpile stewardship programs for warhead certification without explosive tests. President Trump's late 2025 statements and February 2026 deliberations on resuming underground testing—citing China and Russia's advancements, including a reported Chinese explosive test per U.S. intelligence—spurred debate, yet a March 24 top official's non-committal stance underscores technical readiness gaps and political hurdles like congressional funding and international backlash. No verified preparations have emerged in the past 30 days amid CTBTO warnings, with the NPT Review Conference (April 27–May 22) looming as a potential flashpoint for arms control tensions. Subcritical tests continue at Nevada sites, but full detonations face steep barriers absent escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$655,755 Vol.
31 dic 2026
30 de junio de 2026
3%
30 de septiembre de 2026
8%
31 de diciembre de 2026
11%
$655,755 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$32,253 Vol.
3%
30 de septiembre de 2026
$3,921 Vol.
8%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$9,362 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026 (11%), driven by the three-decade moratorium intact since 1992 and reliance on stockpile stewardship programs for warhead certification without explosive tests. President Trump's late 2025 statements and February 2026 deliberations on resuming underground testing—citing China and Russia's advancements, including a reported Chinese explosive test per U.S. intelligence—spurred debate, yet a March 24 top official's non-committal stance underscores technical readiness gaps and political hurdles like congressional funding and international backlash. No verified preparations have emerged in the past 30 days amid CTBTO warnings, with the NPT Review Conference (April 27–May 22) looming as a potential flashpoint for arms control tensions. Subcritical tests continue at Nevada sites, but full detonations face steep barriers absent escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$655,755Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026 (11%), driven by the three-decade moratorium intact since 1992 and reliance on stockpile stewardship programs for warhead certification without explosive tests. President Trump's late 2025 statements and February 2026 deliberations on resuming underground testing—citing China and Russia's advancements, including a reported Chinese explosive test per U.S. intelligence—spurred debate, yet a March 24 top official's non-committal stance underscores technical readiness gaps and political hurdles like congressional funding and international backlash. No verified preparations have emerged in the past 30 days amid CTBTO warnings, with the NPT Review Conference (April 27–May 22) looming as a potential flashpoint for arms control tensions. Subcritical tests continue at Nevada sites, but full detonations face steep barriers absent escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$655,755Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026 (11%), driven by the three-decade moratorium intact since 1992 and reliance on stockpile stewardship programs for warhead certification without explosive tests. President Trump's late 2025 statements and February 2026 deliberations on resuming underground testing—citing China and Russia's advancements, including a reported Chinese explosive test per U.S. intelligence—spurred debate, yet a March 24 top official's non-committal stance underscores technical readiness gaps and political hurdles like congressional funding and international backlash. No verified preparations have emerged in the past 30 days amid CTBTO warnings, with the NPT Review Conference (April 27–May 22) looming as a potential flashpoint for arms control tensions. Subcritical tests continue at Nevada sites, but full detonations face steep barriers absent escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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