¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?
$2,560,640 Vol.
31 dic 2025
30 de junio de 2026
$389,055 Vol.
3%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$41,486 Vol.
9%
$2,560,640 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$389,055 Vol.
3%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$41,486 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Amid recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities in Tuapse and Perm, President Putin proposed a brief ceasefire for May 9 Victory Day, with Kyiv seeking US clarification amid wariness of concessions. President Zelenskyy continues rejecting demands for recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, echoing failed Geneva talks earlier in 2026 where territorial integrity proved non-negotiable. Slow Russian advances in Donbas sustain stalemate, while traders eye US policy under President Trump, European drone aid, and potential escalation signals as barriers to any sovereignty acknowledgment before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Amid recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities in Tuapse and Perm, President Putin proposed a brief ceasefire for May 9 Victory Day, with Kyiv seeking US clarification amid wariness of concessions. President Zelenskyy continues rejecting demands for recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, echoing failed Geneva talks earlier in 2026 where territorial integrity proved non-negotiable. Slow Russian advances in Donbas sustain stalemate, while traders eye US policy under President Trump, European drone aid, and potential escalation signals as barriers to any sovereignty acknowledgment before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
May 1 2026
Analysts note that all concrete peace proposals to date still require Ukraine to cede territory, and no public announcement of such a concession has emerged, cementing the
June 30, 2026 rises to 3%1%
Analysts note that all concrete peace proposals to date still require Ukraine to cede territory, and no public announcement of such a concession has emerged, cementing the market’s low “Yes” probability
Apr 8 2026
Russia‑Ukraine War Report Card notes Russia’s net territorial gains in the past month were only 0.8 % of Ukraine’s land, highlighting a stalled Russian advance and reducing
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Russia‑Ukraine War Report Card notes Russia’s net territorial gains in the past month were only 0.8 % of Ukraine’s land, highlighting a stalled Russian advance and reducing pressure on Kyiv to concede sovereignty
Apr 5 2026
Three rounds of US‑Ukrainian‑Russian talks in the UAE and Switzerland end without breakthrough on territory, confirming no Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
Three rounds of US‑Ukrainian‑Russian talks in the UAE and Switzerland end without breakthrough on territory, confirming no Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty
Mar 3 2026
ISW reports Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in February – the first net gain since 2023, signalling a stronger Ukrainian position and lowering the odds of
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%4%
ISW reports Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in February – the first net gain since 2023, signalling a stronger Ukrainian position and lowering the odds of a concession on sovereignty
Feb 25 2026
Kremlin‑linked source tells Russian opposition outlet Verstka that “de jure recognition of Russian annexations remains non‑negotiable” in peace talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%
Kremlin‑linked source tells Russian opposition outlet Verstka that “de jure recognition of Russian annexations remains non‑negotiable” in peace talks
Feb 18 2026
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio states the U.S.
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
peace plan “must not compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty,” highlighting that territorial recognition remains a dead‑end, pushing
Feb 17 2026
First trilateral US‑Ukraine‑Russia talks begin in Geneva, focused on territory but end without any agreement on Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
First trilateral US‑Ukraine‑Russia talks begin in Geneva, focused on territory but end without any agreement on Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty
Feb 1 2026
Russian Security Council deputy chair Dmitry Medvedev says “Ukraine must accept neutrality, demilitarisation and cede all occupied oblasts” – a hard‑line demand that undercuts any
December 31, 2026 plunges to 34%16%
Russian Security Council deputy chair Dmitry Medvedev says “Ukraine must accept neutrality, demilitarisation and cede all occupied oblasts” – a hard‑line demand that undercuts any near‑term recognition deal
Jan 2 2026
Russian President Putin reiterates that “all of Ukraine is ours,” rejecting any Ukrainian acknowledgment of Russian claims, sending
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%12%
Russian President Putin reiterates that “all of Ukraine is ours,” rejecting any Ukrainian acknowledgment of Russian claims, sending
Dec 28 2025
Trump‑Zelenskyy “Florida talks” report 90 % agreement but acknowledge “thorny issues” over territory, leading to a modest rebound
June 30, 2026 jumps to 19%5%
Trump‑Zelenskyy “Florida talks” report 90 % agreement but acknowledge “thorny issues” over territory, leading to a modest rebound
Nov 25 2025
Former Russian officer Igor Girkin publishes a letter stating the Kremlin will not sign any agreement that includes Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, reinforcing
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%9%
Former Russian officer Igor Girkin publishes a letter stating the Kremlin will not sign any agreement that includes Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, reinforcing market pessimism
Nov 22 2025
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says “90 % of a potential peace deal has been agreed” after talks with Trump, reviving optimism and pushing
June 30, 2026 jumps to 23%10%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says “90 % of a potential peace deal has been agreed” after talks with Trump, reviving optimism and pushing
Oct 21 2025
Russian media reports that the Kremlin’s memorandum (June 2 2025) still calls for full Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, dampening hopes after the Trump‑Zelenskyy
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%4%
Russian media reports that the Kremlin’s memorandum (June 2 2025) still calls for full Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, dampening hopes after the Trump‑Zelenskyy optimism
Oct 18 2025
President Trump meets Zelenskyy in Florida and says “90 % of the peace deal is agreed,” but notes the remaining issue is Ukrainian territorial concession, causing a brief rally
June 30, 2026 jumps to 17%8%
President Trump meets Zelenskyy in Florida and says “90 % of the peace deal is agreed,” but notes the remaining issue is Ukrainian territorial concession, causing a brief rally
Oct 5 2025
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announces a “final” U.S.
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%4%
peace proposal that still demands Ukrainian recognition of Russian‑occupied lands, prompting market skepticism
Sep 26 2025
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov publicly declares “no concessions on sovereignty” will be accepted, underscoring Russia’s maximalist stance
June 30, 2026 plunges to 15%31%
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov publicly declares “no concessions on sovereignty” will be accepted, underscoring Russia’s maximalist stance
Sep 24 2025
Ukraine‑Russia peace talks in Geneva stall as Russian officials refuse to discuss any recognition of annexed territories
June 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Ukraine‑Russia peace talks in Geneva stall as Russian officials refuse to discuss any recognition of annexed territories
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Amid recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities in Tuapse and Perm, President Putin proposed a brief ceasefire for May 9 Victory Day, with Kyiv seeking US clarification amid wariness of concessions. President Zelenskyy continues rejecting demands for recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, echoing failed Geneva talks earlier in 2026 where territorial integrity proved non-negotiable. Slow Russian advances in Donbas sustain stalemate, while traders eye US policy under President Trump, European drone aid, and potential escalation signals as barriers to any sovereignty acknowledgment before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.
An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.
The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Amid recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities in Tuapse and Perm, President Putin proposed a brief ceasefire for May 9 Victory Day, with Kyiv seeking US clarification amid wariness of concessions. President Zelenskyy continues rejecting demands for recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, echoing failed Geneva talks earlier in 2026 where territorial integrity proved non-negotiable. Slow Russian advances in Donbas sustain stalemate, while traders eye US policy under President Trump, European drone aid, and potential escalation signals as barriers to any sovereignty acknowledgment before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
May 1 2026
Analysts note that all concrete peace proposals to date still require Ukraine to cede territory, and no public announcement of such a concession has emerged, cementing the
June 30, 2026 rises to 3%1%
Analysts note that all concrete peace proposals to date still require Ukraine to cede territory, and no public announcement of such a concession has emerged, cementing the market’s low “Yes” probability
Apr 8 2026
Russia‑Ukraine War Report Card notes Russia’s net territorial gains in the past month were only 0.8 % of Ukraine’s land, highlighting a stalled Russian advance and reducing
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Russia‑Ukraine War Report Card notes Russia’s net territorial gains in the past month were only 0.8 % of Ukraine’s land, highlighting a stalled Russian advance and reducing pressure on Kyiv to concede sovereignty
Apr 5 2026
Three rounds of US‑Ukrainian‑Russian talks in the UAE and Switzerland end without breakthrough on territory, confirming no Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
Three rounds of US‑Ukrainian‑Russian talks in the UAE and Switzerland end without breakthrough on territory, confirming no Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty
Mar 3 2026
ISW reports Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in February – the first net gain since 2023, signalling a stronger Ukrainian position and lowering the odds of
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%4%
ISW reports Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in February – the first net gain since 2023, signalling a stronger Ukrainian position and lowering the odds of a concession on sovereignty
Feb 25 2026
Kremlin‑linked source tells Russian opposition outlet Verstka that “de jure recognition of Russian annexations remains non‑negotiable” in peace talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%
Kremlin‑linked source tells Russian opposition outlet Verstka that “de jure recognition of Russian annexations remains non‑negotiable” in peace talks
Feb 18 2026
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio states the U.S.
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
peace plan “must not compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty,” highlighting that territorial recognition remains a dead‑end, pushing
Feb 17 2026
First trilateral US‑Ukraine‑Russia talks begin in Geneva, focused on territory but end without any agreement on Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
First trilateral US‑Ukraine‑Russia talks begin in Geneva, focused on territory but end without any agreement on Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty
Feb 1 2026
Russian Security Council deputy chair Dmitry Medvedev says “Ukraine must accept neutrality, demilitarisation and cede all occupied oblasts” – a hard‑line demand that undercuts any
December 31, 2026 plunges to 34%16%
Russian Security Council deputy chair Dmitry Medvedev says “Ukraine must accept neutrality, demilitarisation and cede all occupied oblasts” – a hard‑line demand that undercuts any near‑term recognition deal
Jan 2 2026
Russian President Putin reiterates that “all of Ukraine is ours,” rejecting any Ukrainian acknowledgment of Russian claims, sending
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%12%
Russian President Putin reiterates that “all of Ukraine is ours,” rejecting any Ukrainian acknowledgment of Russian claims, sending
Dec 28 2025
Trump‑Zelenskyy “Florida talks” report 90 % agreement but acknowledge “thorny issues” over territory, leading to a modest rebound
June 30, 2026 jumps to 19%5%
Trump‑Zelenskyy “Florida talks” report 90 % agreement but acknowledge “thorny issues” over territory, leading to a modest rebound
Nov 25 2025
Former Russian officer Igor Girkin publishes a letter stating the Kremlin will not sign any agreement that includes Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, reinforcing
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%9%
Former Russian officer Igor Girkin publishes a letter stating the Kremlin will not sign any agreement that includes Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, reinforcing market pessimism
Nov 22 2025
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says “90 % of a potential peace deal has been agreed” after talks with Trump, reviving optimism and pushing
June 30, 2026 jumps to 23%10%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says “90 % of a potential peace deal has been agreed” after talks with Trump, reviving optimism and pushing
Oct 21 2025
Russian media reports that the Kremlin’s memorandum (June 2 2025) still calls for full Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, dampening hopes after the Trump‑Zelenskyy
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%4%
Russian media reports that the Kremlin’s memorandum (June 2 2025) still calls for full Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty, dampening hopes after the Trump‑Zelenskyy optimism
Oct 18 2025
President Trump meets Zelenskyy in Florida and says “90 % of the peace deal is agreed,” but notes the remaining issue is Ukrainian territorial concession, causing a brief rally
June 30, 2026 jumps to 17%8%
President Trump meets Zelenskyy in Florida and says “90 % of the peace deal is agreed,” but notes the remaining issue is Ukrainian territorial concession, causing a brief rally
Oct 5 2025
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announces a “final” U.S.
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%4%
peace proposal that still demands Ukrainian recognition of Russian‑occupied lands, prompting market skepticism
Sep 26 2025
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov publicly declares “no concessions on sovereignty” will be accepted, underscoring Russia’s maximalist stance
June 30, 2026 plunges to 15%31%
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov publicly declares “no concessions on sovereignty” will be accepted, underscoring Russia’s maximalist stance
Sep 24 2025
Ukraine‑Russia peace talks in Geneva stall as Russian officials refuse to discuss any recognition of annexed territories
June 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Ukraine‑Russia peace talks in Geneva stall as Russian officials refuse to discuss any recognition of annexed territories
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre de 2026" con 9%, seguido de "30 de junio de 2026" con 3%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 9¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 9% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" ha generado $2.6 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 6, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" es "31 de diciembre de 2026" con solo 9%, con "30 de junio de 2026" muy cerca con 3%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $2.6 million operados en “¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 9¢ para "31 de diciembre de 2026" en el mercado "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 9% de que "31 de diciembre de 2026" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 9¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 91¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Dec 31, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 126 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Ucrania reconoce la soberanía rusa sobre su territorio por...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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