Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, at just 25.5%, reflecting entrenched military stalemate and diplomatic impasse amid ongoing frontline escalations. Russia's April 30 proposal for a brief May 9 Victory Day truce—echoing a collapsed 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier this month—drew Ukrainian requests for U.S. clarification but no commitment, as Kyiv continues long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and Moscow presses eastern offensives. Core sticking points persist: Moscow's demands to retain occupied territories clash with Kyiv's call for full withdrawal, stalling U.S.-mediated talks paused since February's failed Geneva round over security guarantees and Middle East distractions. NATO's pledged $60 billion in 2026 aid bolsters Ukraine's defenses, prolonging conflict absent major concessions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Gana un 4%
Sí
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Gana un 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, at just 25.5%, reflecting entrenched military stalemate and diplomatic impasse amid ongoing frontline escalations. Russia's April 30 proposal for a brief May 9 Victory Day truce—echoing a collapsed 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier this month—drew Ukrainian requests for U.S. clarification but no commitment, as Kyiv continues long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and Moscow presses eastern offensives. Core sticking points persist: Moscow's demands to retain occupied territories clash with Kyiv's call for full withdrawal, stalling U.S.-mediated talks paused since February's failed Geneva round over security guarantees and Middle East distractions. NATO's pledged $60 billion in 2026 aid bolsters Ukraine's defenses, prolonging conflict absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$14,502,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, at just 25.5%, reflecting entrenched military stalemate and diplomatic impasse amid ongoing frontline escalations. Russia's April 30 proposal for a brief May 9 Victory Day truce—echoing a collapsed 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier this month—drew Ukrainian requests for U.S. clarification but no commitment, as Kyiv continues long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and Moscow presses eastern offensives. Core sticking points persist: Moscow's demands to retain occupied territories clash with Kyiv's call for full withdrawal, stalling U.S.-mediated talks paused since February's failed Geneva round over security guarantees and Middle East distractions. NATO's pledged $60 billion in 2026 aid bolsters Ukraine's defenses, prolonging conflict absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$14,502,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, at just 25.5%, reflecting entrenched military stalemate and diplomatic impasse amid ongoing frontline escalations. Russia's April 30 proposal for a brief May 9 Victory Day truce—echoing a collapsed 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier this month—drew Ukrainian requests for U.S. clarification but no commitment, as Kyiv continues long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and Moscow presses eastern offensives. Core sticking points persist: Moscow's demands to retain occupied territories clash with Kyiv's call for full withdrawal, stalling U.S.-mediated talks paused since February's failed Geneva round over security guarantees and Middle East distractions. NATO's pledged $60 billion in 2026 aid bolsters Ukraine's defenses, prolonging conflict absent major concessions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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