Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding 62.5% implied probability in trader consensus for the October 26 Ottawa municipal election, driven by strong name recognition from his 2022 victory and a fragmented opposition field that splits anti-incumbent votes. A mid-April Liaison Strategies poll of 1,000 residents showed Sutcliffe leading decided voters 46% to Jeff Leiper's 37% (Kitchissippi councillor), with Alex Lawson at 13% and 48% undecided, aligning with current pricing amid high disapproval ratings on transit (71%), homelessness (58%), and housing affordability (54%). Nomination papers open today, May 1, potentially solidifying challengers like Lawson (homebuilder) and economist Neil Saravanamuttoo, while top voter concerns—cost of living, reliable public transit, and projects like Lansdowne 2.0—could shift odds ahead of advance voting in October.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOttawa Mayoral Election Winner
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
Mark Sutcliffe 63%
Jeff Leiper 19%
Alex Lawson 4.5%
Catherine McKenney 2.6%

Mark Sutcliffe
63%

Jeff Leiper
19%

Alex Lawson
4%

Catherine McKenney
3%

Neil Saravanamuttoo
<1%
Mark Sutcliffe 63%
Jeff Leiper 19%
Alex Lawson 4.5%
Catherine McKenney 2.6%

Mark Sutcliffe
63%

Jeff Leiper
19%

Alex Lawson
4%

Catherine McKenney
3%

Neil Saravanamuttoo
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding 62.5% implied probability in trader consensus for the October 26 Ottawa municipal election, driven by strong name recognition from his 2022 victory and a fragmented opposition field that splits anti-incumbent votes. A mid-April Liaison Strategies poll of 1,000 residents showed Sutcliffe leading decided voters 46% to Jeff Leiper's 37% (Kitchissippi councillor), with Alex Lawson at 13% and 48% undecided, aligning with current pricing amid high disapproval ratings on transit (71%), homelessness (58%), and housing affordability (54%). Nomination papers open today, May 1, potentially solidifying challengers like Lawson (homebuilder) and economist Neil Saravanamuttoo, while top voter concerns—cost of living, reliable public transit, and projects like Lansdowne 2.0—could shift odds ahead of advance voting in October.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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