Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (68.5% implied probability), driven by a Wall Street Journal report last week revealing the AI lab missed 2026 revenue and user growth targets amid unsustainable compute spending projected at $121 billion by 2028. CFO Sarah Friar has internally challenged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline, echoing concerns over operational readiness. The ongoing Elon Musk lawsuit—now in trial with Musk testifying this week—threatens to unwind OpenAI's for-profit conversion, potentially blocking public listing and eroding its $852 billion private valuation. While preparations continue, no S-1 filing has emerged, and historical AI product delays underscore execution risks ahead of year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 69%
1.25T–1.5T 8.6%
1,5 billones+ 5.5%
1 billón–1,25 billones 4.8%
$1,603,200 Vol.
$1,603,200 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
2%
500–750B
4%
750B–1T
4%
1 billón–1,25 billones
5%
1.25T–1.5T
9%
1,5 billones+
6%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
69%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 69%
1.25T–1.5T 8.6%
1,5 billones+ 5.5%
1 billón–1,25 billones 4.8%
$1,603,200 Vol.
$1,603,200 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
$261,102 Vol.
2%
500–750B
$142,616 Vol.
4%
750B–1T
$137,774 Vol.
4%
1 billón–1,25 billones
$179,460 Vol.
5%
1.25T–1.5T
$492,070 Vol.
9%
1,5 billones+
$96,927 Vol.
6%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
$293,523 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (68.5% implied probability), driven by a Wall Street Journal report last week revealing the AI lab missed 2026 revenue and user growth targets amid unsustainable compute spending projected at $121 billion by 2028. CFO Sarah Friar has internally challenged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline, echoing concerns over operational readiness. The ongoing Elon Musk lawsuit—now in trial with Musk testifying this week—threatens to unwind OpenAI's for-profit conversion, potentially blocking public listing and eroding its $852 billion private valuation. While preparations continue, no S-1 filing has emerged, and historical AI product delays underscore execution risks ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,603,200Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (68.5% implied probability), driven by a Wall Street Journal report last week revealing the AI lab missed 2026 revenue and user growth targets amid unsustainable compute spending projected at $121 billion by 2028. CFO Sarah Friar has internally challenged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline, echoing concerns over operational readiness. The ongoing Elon Musk lawsuit—now in trial with Musk testifying this week—threatens to unwind OpenAI's for-profit conversion, potentially blocking public listing and eroding its $852 billion private valuation. While preparations continue, no S-1 filing has emerged, and historical AI product delays underscore execution risks ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,603,200Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 (68.5% implied probability), driven by a Wall Street Journal report last week revealing the AI lab missed 2026 revenue and user growth targets amid unsustainable compute spending projected at $121 billion by 2028. CFO Sarah Friar has internally challenged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline, echoing concerns over operational readiness. The ongoing Elon Musk lawsuit—now in trial with Musk testifying this week—threatens to unwind OpenAI's for-profit conversion, potentially blocking public listing and eroding its $852 billion private valuation. While preparations continue, no S-1 filing has emerged, and historical AI product delays underscore execution risks ahead of year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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