**Above-average 2026 tornado activity through mid-June underpins the strong 83.5% market-implied probability for 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes.** With roughly 712 confirmed tornadoes year-to-date per SPC and NCEI tracking, the count already exceeds the pace needed for an above-normal annual total against the long-term average of about 1,200–1,225. Multiple spring outbreaks, including a significant April 17 event across the Upper Midwest and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23, have contributed, alongside elevated preliminary reports concentrated in Illinois, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. Developing El Niño conditions are enhancing moisture and wind shear across the central and southern Plains, supporting supercell formation. Peak months of June–July remain ahead, with ongoing SPC outlooks indicating continued convective potential. Traders appear to weigh these verified early-season trends and climatological analogs heavily when pricing the upper outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
1250+ 83%
1200–1249 5.1%
<950 4.7%
1150–1199 4.4%
$73,008 Vol.
$73,008 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
5%
950–999
2%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
2%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
5%
1250+
83%
1250+ 83%
1200–1249 5.1%
<950 4.7%
1150–1199 4.4%
$73,008 Vol.
$73,008 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
$22,479 Vol.
5%
950–999
$3,008 Vol.
2%
1000–1049
$2,670 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,867 Vol.
2%
1100–1149
$2,104 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$2,693 Vol.
4%
1200–1249
$15,210 Vol.
5%
1250+
$16,978 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Above-average 2026 tornado activity through mid-June underpins the strong 83.5% market-implied probability for 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes.** With roughly 712 confirmed tornadoes year-to-date per SPC and NCEI tracking, the count already exceeds the pace needed for an above-normal annual total against the long-term average of about 1,200–1,225. Multiple spring outbreaks, including a significant April 17 event across the Upper Midwest and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23, have contributed, alongside elevated preliminary reports concentrated in Illinois, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. Developing El Niño conditions are enhancing moisture and wind shear across the central and southern Plains, supporting supercell formation. Peak months of June–July remain ahead, with ongoing SPC outlooks indicating continued convective potential. Traders appear to weigh these verified early-season trends and climatological analogs heavily when pricing the upper outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$73,008Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Above-average 2026 tornado activity through mid-June underpins the strong 83.5% market-implied probability for 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes.** With roughly 712 confirmed tornadoes year-to-date per SPC and NCEI tracking, the count already exceeds the pace needed for an above-normal annual total against the long-term average of about 1,200–1,225. Multiple spring outbreaks, including a significant April 17 event across the Upper Midwest and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23, have contributed, alongside elevated preliminary reports concentrated in Illinois, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. Developing El Niño conditions are enhancing moisture and wind shear across the central and southern Plains, supporting supercell formation. Peak months of June–July remain ahead, with ongoing SPC outlooks indicating continued convective potential. Traders appear to weigh these verified early-season trends and climatological analogs heavily when pricing the upper outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$73,008Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Above-average 2026 tornado activity through mid-June underpins the strong 83.5% market-implied probability for 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes.** With roughly 712 confirmed tornadoes year-to-date per SPC and NCEI tracking, the count already exceeds the pace needed for an above-normal annual total against the long-term average of about 1,200–1,225. Multiple spring outbreaks, including a significant April 17 event across the Upper Midwest and an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23, have contributed, alongside elevated preliminary reports concentrated in Illinois, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. Developing El Niño conditions are enhancing moisture and wind shear across the central and southern Plains, supporting supercell formation. Peak months of June–July remain ahead, with ongoing SPC outlooks indicating continued convective potential. Traders appear to weigh these verified early-season trends and climatological analogs heavily when pricing the upper outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes