**The market's heavy weighting toward zero (79% implied probability) reflects the low global baseline rate of M6.5+ events—typically 15–20 per year, or roughly 0.3–0.4 per week on average—combined with limited seismic activity outside known hotspots during June 8–14.** A Mw 7.8 event off southern Mindanao on June 8 (Cotabato Trench subduction) and its strongest aftershock (mb 6.5) plus a separate M6.1 near Cuba on the same day raised the chance of at least one count, shifting some probability mass to 1 (17%). No additional M6.5+ events appear in USGS or PHIVOLCS reports through June 14, keeping higher counts (2+) at very low odds. Traders are monitoring ongoing aftershock sequences and any late-week model updates from agencies like USGS, as new catalog revisions could still alter the final tally before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 8 al 14 de junio?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 8 al 14 de junio?
0 86%
1 17%
2 2.5%
3 1.0%
$23,677 Vol.
$23,677 Vol.
15 jun 2026
0
79%
1
17%
2
2%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
1%
>5
<1%
0 86%
1 17%
2 2.5%
3 1.0%
$23,677 Vol.
$23,677 Vol.
15 jun 2026
0
$8,019 Vol.
79%
1
$2,164 Vol.
17%
2
$2,298 Vol.
2%
3
$2,748 Vol.
1%
4
$3,150 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,770 Vol.
1%
>5
$3,528 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**The market's heavy weighting toward zero (79% implied probability) reflects the low global baseline rate of M6.5+ events—typically 15–20 per year, or roughly 0.3–0.4 per week on average—combined with limited seismic activity outside known hotspots during June 8–14.** A Mw 7.8 event off southern Mindanao on June 8 (Cotabato Trench subduction) and its strongest aftershock (mb 6.5) plus a separate M6.1 near Cuba on the same day raised the chance of at least one count, shifting some probability mass to 1 (17%). No additional M6.5+ events appear in USGS or PHIVOLCS reports through June 14, keeping higher counts (2+) at very low odds. Traders are monitoring ongoing aftershock sequences and any late-week model updates from agencies like USGS, as new catalog revisions could still alter the final tally before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$23,677Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**The market's heavy weighting toward zero (79% implied probability) reflects the low global baseline rate of M6.5+ events—typically 15–20 per year, or roughly 0.3–0.4 per week on average—combined with limited seismic activity outside known hotspots during June 8–14.** A Mw 7.8 event off southern Mindanao on June 8 (Cotabato Trench subduction) and its strongest aftershock (mb 6.5) plus a separate M6.1 near Cuba on the same day raised the chance of at least one count, shifting some probability mass to 1 (17%). No additional M6.5+ events appear in USGS or PHIVOLCS reports through June 14, keeping higher counts (2+) at very low odds. Traders are monitoring ongoing aftershock sequences and any late-week model updates from agencies like USGS, as new catalog revisions could still alter the final tally before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$23,677Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The market's heavy weighting toward zero (79% implied probability) reflects the low global baseline rate of M6.5+ events—typically 15–20 per year, or roughly 0.3–0.4 per week on average—combined with limited seismic activity outside known hotspots during June 8–14.** A Mw 7.8 event off southern Mindanao on June 8 (Cotabato Trench subduction) and its strongest aftershock (mb 6.5) plus a separate M6.1 near Cuba on the same day raised the chance of at least one count, shifting some probability mass to 1 (17%). No additional M6.5+ events appear in USGS or PHIVOLCS reports through June 14, keeping higher counts (2+) at very low odds. Traders are monitoring ongoing aftershock sequences and any late-week model updates from agencies like USGS, as new catalog revisions could still alter the final tally before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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