The 79.5% market-implied probability for zero M6.5+ earthquakes during June 8–14 aligns with the low global baseline rate of such events, typically 1–3 per week according to USGS catalogs, driven by the rarity of sufficient stress accumulation on major faults. Recent developments center on the M7.8 Mindanao quake and its aftershocks on June 8, which produced at least one confirmed M6.5 event but limited further escalation within the narrow time window, alongside a separate M6.1 near Cuba that fell below threshold. Model consensus from USGS monitoring shows no additional large ruptures or unusual seismic swarms in the subsequent days, keeping the count low. Traders weigh the short remaining resolution period and absence of new high-magnitude triggers against historical weekly variability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 8 al 14 de junio?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 8 al 14 de junio?
0 82%
1 22%
2 2.4%
3 1.0%
$23,696 Vol.
$23,696 Vol.
15 jun 2026
0
68%
1
15%
2
2%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
1%
>5
<1%
0 82%
1 22%
2 2.4%
3 1.0%
$23,696 Vol.
$23,696 Vol.
15 jun 2026
0
$8,036 Vol.
68%
1
$2,164 Vol.
15%
2
$2,298 Vol.
2%
3
$2,748 Vol.
1%
4
$3,152 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,770 Vol.
1%
>5
$3,528 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 79.5% market-implied probability for zero M6.5+ earthquakes during June 8–14 aligns with the low global baseline rate of such events, typically 1–3 per week according to USGS catalogs, driven by the rarity of sufficient stress accumulation on major faults. Recent developments center on the M7.8 Mindanao quake and its aftershocks on June 8, which produced at least one confirmed M6.5 event but limited further escalation within the narrow time window, alongside a separate M6.1 near Cuba that fell below threshold. Model consensus from USGS monitoring shows no additional large ruptures or unusual seismic swarms in the subsequent days, keeping the count low. Traders weigh the short remaining resolution period and absence of new high-magnitude triggers against historical weekly variability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$23,696Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 79.5% market-implied probability for zero M6.5+ earthquakes during June 8–14 aligns with the low global baseline rate of such events, typically 1–3 per week according to USGS catalogs, driven by the rarity of sufficient stress accumulation on major faults. Recent developments center on the M7.8 Mindanao quake and its aftershocks on June 8, which produced at least one confirmed M6.5 event but limited further escalation within the narrow time window, alongside a separate M6.1 near Cuba that fell below threshold. Model consensus from USGS monitoring shows no additional large ruptures or unusual seismic swarms in the subsequent days, keeping the count low. Traders weigh the short remaining resolution period and absence of new high-magnitude triggers against historical weekly variability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$23,696Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 79.5% market-implied probability for zero M6.5+ earthquakes during June 8–14 aligns with the low global baseline rate of such events, typically 1–3 per week according to USGS catalogs, driven by the rarity of sufficient stress accumulation on major faults. Recent developments center on the M7.8 Mindanao quake and its aftershocks on June 8, which produced at least one confirmed M6.5 event but limited further escalation within the narrow time window, alongside a separate M6.1 near Cuba that fell below threshold. Model consensus from USGS monitoring shows no additional large ruptures or unusual seismic swarms in the subsequent days, keeping the count low. Traders weigh the short remaining resolution period and absence of new high-magnitude triggers against historical weekly variability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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