Germany's Q2 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect a closely contested outlook, with market-implied odds clustered around modest positive or flat readings. The primary driver remains the energy price shock from the Iran-related conflict, which elevated inflation to 2.6% in May and weighed on real incomes and manufacturing. This offsets expansionary fiscal policy under the new constitutional framework and Q1's 0.3% QoQ gain. Labor market data show unemployment near 6.3% with limited momentum, while export and investment trends remain subdued. Traders price in uncertainty ahead of the July 30 flash release, as swings in energy costs or fiscal execution could shift the outcome between contraction and the 0.4–0.6% range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado≤0.0% 4%
0.1-0.3% 0
0.4-0.6% 0
0.7-0.9% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
≤0.0%
24%
0.1-0.3%
52%
0.4-0.6%
46%
0.7-0.9%
39%
1.0-1.2%
41%
1.3%+
44%
≤0.0% 4%
0.1-0.3% 0
0.4-0.6% 0
0.7-0.9% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
≤0.0%
$174 Vol.
24%
0.1-0.3%
$151 Vol.
52%
0.4-0.6%
$76 Vol.
46%
0.7-0.9%
$89 Vol.
39%
1.0-1.2%
$57 Vol.
41%
1.3%+
$76 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's Q2 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect a closely contested outlook, with market-implied odds clustered around modest positive or flat readings. The primary driver remains the energy price shock from the Iran-related conflict, which elevated inflation to 2.6% in May and weighed on real incomes and manufacturing. This offsets expansionary fiscal policy under the new constitutional framework and Q1's 0.3% QoQ gain. Labor market data show unemployment near 6.3% with limited momentum, while export and investment trends remain subdued. Traders price in uncertainty ahead of the July 30 flash release, as swings in energy costs or fiscal execution could shift the outcome between contraction and the 0.4–0.6% range.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volumen
$623Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's Q2 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect a closely contested outlook, with market-implied odds clustered around modest positive or flat readings. The primary driver remains the energy price shock from the Iran-related conflict, which elevated inflation to 2.6% in May and weighed on real incomes and manufacturing. This offsets expansionary fiscal policy under the new constitutional framework and Q1's 0.3% QoQ gain. Labor market data show unemployment near 6.3% with limited momentum, while export and investment trends remain subdued. Traders price in uncertainty ahead of the July 30 flash release, as swings in energy costs or fiscal execution could shift the outcome between contraction and the 0.4–0.6% range.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$623Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany's Q2 2026 GDP growth expectations reflect a closely contested outlook, with market-implied odds clustered around modest positive or flat readings. The primary driver remains the energy price shock from the Iran-related conflict, which elevated inflation to 2.6% in May and weighed on real incomes and manufacturing. This offsets expansionary fiscal policy under the new constitutional framework and Q1's 0.3% QoQ gain. Labor market data show unemployment near 6.3% with limited momentum, while export and investment trends remain subdued. Traders price in uncertainty ahead of the July 30 flash release, as swings in energy costs or fiscal execution could shift the outcome between contraction and the 0.4–0.6% range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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