Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors 0-1% UK annual GDP growth for 2026 at 49% implied probability, edging 5%+ at 46%, amid razor-sharp uncertainty over the Iran war's duration. February's surprise 0.5% monthly GDP expansion signaled pre-conflict momentum, but escalating energy shocks have driven March CPI inflation to 3.3%, pushed 10-year gilt yields above 5%—highest since 2008—and prompted IMF and OECD downgrades to 0.8% growth. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on April 29, citing embedded inflation risks. Prolonged conflict bolsters low-growth odds via squeezed confidence and borrowing costs; quick resolution could spark a high-growth rebound via pent-up demand. Watch March GDP data due May 14.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado<0 12%
1-2% 11%
2-3% 6.0%
3-4% 4.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 feb 2027
<0
12%
0-1%
52%
1-2%
10%
2-3%
7%
3-4%
8%
4-5%
39%
5% o más
42%
<0 12%
1-2% 11%
2-3% 6.0%
3-4% 4.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 feb 2027
<0
$345 Vol.
12%
0-1%
$381 Vol.
52%
1-2%
$210 Vol.
10%
2-3%
$247 Vol.
7%
3-4%
$201 Vol.
8%
4-5%
$413 Vol.
39%
5% o más
$252 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors 0-1% UK annual GDP growth for 2026 at 49% implied probability, edging 5%+ at 46%, amid razor-sharp uncertainty over the Iran war's duration. February's surprise 0.5% monthly GDP expansion signaled pre-conflict momentum, but escalating energy shocks have driven March CPI inflation to 3.3%, pushed 10-year gilt yields above 5%—highest since 2008—and prompted IMF and OECD downgrades to 0.8% growth. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on April 29, citing embedded inflation risks. Prolonged conflict bolsters low-growth odds via squeezed confidence and borrowing costs; quick resolution could spark a high-growth rebound via pent-up demand. Watch March GDP data due May 14.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$2,048Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors 0-1% UK annual GDP growth for 2026 at 49% implied probability, edging 5%+ at 46%, amid razor-sharp uncertainty over the Iran war's duration. February's surprise 0.5% monthly GDP expansion signaled pre-conflict momentum, but escalating energy shocks have driven March CPI inflation to 3.3%, pushed 10-year gilt yields above 5%—highest since 2008—and prompted IMF and OECD downgrades to 0.8% growth. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on April 29, citing embedded inflation risks. Prolonged conflict bolsters low-growth odds via squeezed confidence and borrowing costs; quick resolution could spark a high-growth rebound via pent-up demand. Watch March GDP data due May 14.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,048Fecha de finalización
12 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors 0-1% UK annual GDP growth for 2026 at 49% implied probability, edging 5%+ at 46%, amid razor-sharp uncertainty over the Iran war's duration. February's surprise 0.5% monthly GDP expansion signaled pre-conflict momentum, but escalating energy shocks have driven March CPI inflation to 3.3%, pushed 10-year gilt yields above 5%—highest since 2008—and prompted IMF and OECD downgrades to 0.8% growth. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on April 29, citing embedded inflation risks. Prolonged conflict bolsters low-growth odds via squeezed confidence and borrowing costs; quick resolution could spark a high-growth rebound via pent-up demand. Watch March GDP data due May 14.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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