**Elevated but likely transitory UK inflation pressures from Middle East energy disruptions, alongside subdued growth and Bank of England (BoE) guidance favoring patience, underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 30, 2026 meeting.** Current Bank Rate stands at 3.75% following the April hold (8-1 vote), with April CPI at 2.8% (down from 3.3% in March) still above the 2% target yet showing core measures easing to 2.5%. The Iran conflict has lifted energy and fuel costs, with the BoE projecting CPI near 3–3.5% through summer and warning of “forceful” hikes only if second-round effects emerge. Governor Bailey has signaled no rush to tighten amid weak growth and uncertainty, shifting earlier 2026 cut expectations toward possible modest hikes later if needed. The slim 15% odds of a 25 basis point increase reflect limited pricing for an early response, while sub-1% probabilities for cuts or larger moves highlight the consensus that the inflation spike is supply-driven and temporary rather than demanding immediate policy adjustment. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 inflation release and the June 18 MPC decision, which will clarify whether the upward inflation path persists into the July meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBank of England decision in July?
Bank of England decision in July?
No change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
84%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
$766 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$666 Vol.
<1%
No change
$1,042 Vol.
84%
25 bps increase
$1,932 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Elevated but likely transitory UK inflation pressures from Middle East energy disruptions, alongside subdued growth and Bank of England (BoE) guidance favoring patience, underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 30, 2026 meeting.** Current Bank Rate stands at 3.75% following the April hold (8-1 vote), with April CPI at 2.8% (down from 3.3% in March) still above the 2% target yet showing core measures easing to 2.5%. The Iran conflict has lifted energy and fuel costs, with the BoE projecting CPI near 3–3.5% through summer and warning of “forceful” hikes only if second-round effects emerge. Governor Bailey has signaled no rush to tighten amid weak growth and uncertainty, shifting earlier 2026 cut expectations toward possible modest hikes later if needed. The slim 15% odds of a 25 basis point increase reflect limited pricing for an early response, while sub-1% probabilities for cuts or larger moves highlight the consensus that the inflation spike is supply-driven and temporary rather than demanding immediate policy adjustment. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 inflation release and the June 18 MPC decision, which will clarify whether the upward inflation path persists into the July meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volumen
$5,753Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Elevated but likely transitory UK inflation pressures from Middle East energy disruptions, alongside subdued growth and Bank of England (BoE) guidance favoring patience, underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 30, 2026 meeting.** Current Bank Rate stands at 3.75% following the April hold (8-1 vote), with April CPI at 2.8% (down from 3.3% in March) still above the 2% target yet showing core measures easing to 2.5%. The Iran conflict has lifted energy and fuel costs, with the BoE projecting CPI near 3–3.5% through summer and warning of “forceful” hikes only if second-round effects emerge. Governor Bailey has signaled no rush to tighten amid weak growth and uncertainty, shifting earlier 2026 cut expectations toward possible modest hikes later if needed. The slim 15% odds of a 25 basis point increase reflect limited pricing for an early response, while sub-1% probabilities for cuts or larger moves highlight the consensus that the inflation spike is supply-driven and temporary rather than demanding immediate policy adjustment. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 inflation release and the June 18 MPC decision, which will clarify whether the upward inflation path persists into the July meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,753Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated but likely transitory UK inflation pressures from Middle East energy disruptions, alongside subdued growth and Bank of England (BoE) guidance favoring patience, underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 30, 2026 meeting.** Current Bank Rate stands at 3.75% following the April hold (8-1 vote), with April CPI at 2.8% (down from 3.3% in March) still above the 2% target yet showing core measures easing to 2.5%. The Iran conflict has lifted energy and fuel costs, with the BoE projecting CPI near 3–3.5% through summer and warning of “forceful” hikes only if second-round effects emerge. Governor Bailey has signaled no rush to tighten amid weak growth and uncertainty, shifting earlier 2026 cut expectations toward possible modest hikes later if needed. The slim 15% odds of a 25 basis point increase reflect limited pricing for an early response, while sub-1% probabilities for cuts or larger moves highlight the consensus that the inflation spike is supply-driven and temporary rather than demanding immediate policy adjustment. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 inflation release and the June 18 MPC decision, which will clarify whether the upward inflation path persists into the July meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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