The strong market-implied 94% probability of no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 reflects the well-documented rarity of these events, with global recurrence estimates of roughly one to three per century based on subduction zone lengths, convergence rates, and historical catalogs from USGS and peer-reviewed analyses. No such quake has occurred since the 2011 Tōhoku event, consistent with multicentury return times on individual megathrust faults and the absence of recent clustering or anomalous seismic activity. While forecasting carries inherent uncertainty due to incomplete stress monitoring and potential model variability, the compressed timeframe through late 2026 further lowers odds. A sudden major rupture on an unmonitored or stressed segment remains possible but lacks supporting observational data at present.