Expanded 48-team World Cup format and expanded VAR protocols are expected to increase the total number of penalties awarded compared with prior tournaments. Open-play spot-kicks have converted at roughly 79 percent since 1978, while shootout success rates hover near 69-70 percent, with later kicks in prolonged shootouts showing further decline. Venues at altitude in Mexico raise the risk of over-hit efforts sailing over the crossbar. Recent IFAB-approved law changes eliminating rebounds on missed non-shootout penalties and broadening VAR review of corners and second yellows could subtly alter taker and goalkeeper behavior. Squad depth among elite penalty takers and fixture congestion remain the main variables that traders monitor for shifts in implied totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Jul 20, 2026
5+ missed penalties
81%
10+ missed penalties
58%
15+ missed penalties
50%
20+ missed penalties
29%
25+ missed penalties
24%
30+ missed penalties
15%
35+ missed penalties
12%
40+ missed penalties
3%
45+ missed penalties
10%
50+ missed penalties
5%
$3,441 Vol.
5+ missed penalties
$4 Vol.
81%
10+ missed penalties
$211 Vol.
58%
15+ missed penalties
$0 Vol.
50%
20+ missed penalties
$0 Vol.
29%
25+ missed penalties
$0 Vol.
24%
30+ missed penalties
$634 Vol.
15%
35+ missed penalties
$634 Vol.
12%
40+ missed penalties
$689 Vol.
3%
45+ missed penalties
$634 Vol.
10%
50+ missed penalties
$634 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of penalty kicks that are missed or saved during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Expanded 48-team World Cup format and expanded VAR protocols are expected to increase the total number of penalties awarded compared with prior tournaments. Open-play spot-kicks have converted at roughly 79 percent since 1978, while shootout success rates hover near 69-70 percent, with later kicks in prolonged shootouts showing further decline. Venues at altitude in Mexico raise the risk of over-hit efforts sailing over the crossbar. Recent IFAB-approved law changes eliminating rebounds on missed non-shootout penalties and broadening VAR review of corners and second yellows could subtly alter taker and goalkeeper behavior. Squad depth among elite penalty takers and fixture congestion remain the main variables that traders monitor for shifts in implied totals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of penalty kicks that are missed or saved during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 11, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$3,441End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of penalty kicks that are missed or saved during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Expanded 48-team World Cup format and expanded VAR protocols are expected to increase the total number of penalties awarded compared with prior tournaments. Open-play spot-kicks have converted at roughly 79 percent since 1978, while shootout success rates hover near 69-70 percent, with later kicks in prolonged shootouts showing further decline. Venues at altitude in Mexico raise the risk of over-hit efforts sailing over the crossbar. Recent IFAB-approved law changes eliminating rebounds on missed non-shootout penalties and broadening VAR review of corners and second yellows could subtly alter taker and goalkeeper behavior. Squad depth among elite penalty takers and fixture congestion remain the main variables that traders monitor for shifts in implied totals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of penalty kicks that are missed or saved during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,441End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Expanded 48-team World Cup format and expanded VAR protocols are expected to increase the total number of penalties awarded compared with prior tournaments. Open-play spot-kicks have converted at roughly 79 percent since 1978, while shootout success rates hover near 69-70 percent, with later kicks in prolonged shootouts showing further decline. Venues at altitude in Mexico raise the risk of over-hit efforts sailing over the crossbar. Recent IFAB-approved law changes eliminating rebounds on missed non-shootout penalties and broadening VAR review of corners and second yellows could subtly alter taker and goalkeeper behavior. Squad depth among elite penalty takers and fixture congestion remain the main variables that traders monitor for shifts in implied totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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