The low likelihood of any team reaching three or more penalty shootouts in the knockout phase stems primarily from the structure of single-elimination brackets and the infrequency of matches extending to penalties. In tournaments with four or five knockout rounds, a side must navigate multiple ties after 120 minutes without a decisive result in regulation or extra time, a sequence that historical patterns show occurs rarely due to improving defensive organization, fatigue management, and the variance inherent in shootouts themselves. Recent form in qualifying and group stages has produced few extended knockout-style contests, while injury reports and squad rotation typically limit the depth needed for repeated high-stakes shootout performances. Trader consensus at 87% for the negative outcome aligns with these established dynamics, where even strong contenders rarely sustain the precise conditions across multiple rounds.