The concentration of elite squads and recent international form among established powers like Spain, France, England, Brazil, Argentina, and Germany underpins trader consensus on no first-time winner. These nations combine deep talent pools, proven tournament experience, and favorable recent results heading into the expanded 48-team event across North America. Historical precedent reinforces the view, with only eight countries ever claiming the trophy despite decades of competition and occasional near-misses by sides such as the Netherlands and Portugal. While dark horses like Colombia, Norway, and Morocco carry realistic upset potential in a larger field, none currently project to overcome the favorites' advantages in depth, coaching stability, and head-to-head records.