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Politics·Rewards 200, 4.5, 20

When will the DHS shutdown end?

icon for When will the DHS shutdown end?
Politics·Rewards 200, 4.5, 20

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Apr 30

Jul 31

Apr 30

Jul 31

April 27-May 3 98.6%

June 15-21 <1%

July 6-12 <1%

May 11-17 <1%

Polymarket

$51,308 Vol.

April 27-May 3 98.6%

June 15-21 <1%

July 6-12 <1%

May 11-17 <1%

Polymarket

$51,308 Vol.

April 27-May 3

$6,821 Vol.

99%

May 4-10

$2,945 Vol.

<1%

May 11-17

$2,252 Vol.

<1%

May 18-24

$12,831 Vol.

<1%

May 25-31

$2,363 Vol.

<1%

June 1-7

$754 Vol.

<1%

June 8-14

$1,043 Vol.

<1%

June 15-21

$824 Vol.

1%

June 22-28

$890 Vol.

<1%

June 29-July 5

$744 Vol.

<1%

July 6-12

$1,650 Vol.

<1%

July 13-19

$1,347 Vol.

<1%

July 20-26

$825 Vol.

<1%

July 27-31

$1,183 Vol.

<1%

After July 31

$2,197 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.House approval of a Senate-passed funding bill on April 30 has propelled trader consensus to 98.5% odds of the DHS shutdown ending by May 3, capping a record 76-day lapse since February 14 stemming from congressional impasse over ICE and CBP appropriations amid immigration reform disputes. This two-track Republican strategy—stopgap funding for TSA, FEMA, Secret Service, and most agencies via voice vote, paired with a recent budget reconciliation resolution enabling simple-majority funding for border enforcement—signals swift presidential signature amid warnings of depleted emergency pay funds. While commanding, scenarios like reconciliation vote shortfalls, intra-GOP holdouts, or Democratic procedural challenges could extend it, though leadership momentum and public pressure on airport delays reduce those risks.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$51,308
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.House approval of a Senate-passed funding bill on April 30 has propelled trader consensus to 98.5% odds of the DHS shutdown ending by May 3, capping a record 76-day lapse since February 14 stemming from congressional impasse over ICE and CBP appropriations amid immigration reform disputes. This two-track Republican strategy—stopgap funding for TSA, FEMA, Secret Service, and most agencies via voice vote, paired with a recent budget reconciliation resolution enabling simple-majority funding for border enforcement—signals swift presidential signature amid warnings of depleted emergency pay funds. While commanding, scenarios like reconciliation vote shortfalls, intra-GOP holdouts, or Democratic procedural challenges could extend it, though leadership momentum and public pressure on airport delays reduce those risks.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$51,308
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"When will the DHS shutdown end?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 27-May 3" at 99%, followed by "June 15-21" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "When will the DHS shutdown end?" has generated $51.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "When will the DHS shutdown end?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" is "April 27-May 3" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 15-21" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.